You may have noticed that things are getting particularly, absolutely mad with Brexit.
What should you be making of all the talk of this week being the “Endgame”, some “Rebel Alliance” wresting power from Boris Johnson, and a possible general election on Oct. 14?
Clear your head as BuzzFeed News takes you through just six things you need to be paying attention to over the next two days.
1. How many Tories will cross over to the other side?
The only question that really matters in the run-up to Tuesday night’s vote is: How many Tory MPs will vote against Boris Johnson’s government?
If they do, they’ll “lose the whip”, meaning they’ll no longer be able to call themselves Tory MPs.
Johnson has a wafer-thin majority and needs to keep the rebels down below the 10 mark if he is to have a hope of winning.
So Downing Street will be piling the pressure on MPs not to rebel all day today. BuzzFeed News is keeping a rolling tally of the number of rebels. You can follow it here.
2. Does the speaker let the rebels have their vote?
At around 7pm on Tuesday, speaker John Bercow will decide whether or not to let the so-called “Rebel Alliance” — the Labour, Lib Dems, SNP, and rebel Tory MPs who all want to make sure Boris Johnson can’t take the UK out of the EU without a deal — actually have their vote on seizing control of Parliament.
The ultimate banter moment would be if he refuses.
Get behind your Guardians! #Bercow 👊🙌 #stopnodeal #brexitshambles #time4heroes
But all the signs point to the anti-Brexit independent speaker ripping up the rules and letting the rebels have their vote.
3. Now, does the “Rebel Alliance” have the numbers?
The first crunch vote will be around 9pm on Tuesday night. Now we’ll find out who will be part of the Rebel Alliance. They need to pass a motion with a simple majority to end the debate and get on to voting for legislation.
Will the number of Tory rebels be higher than the Labour MPs who vote with the government?
The Rebel Alliance is confident they’ll win, but the result is not a foregone conclusion.
4. Does the Rebel Alliance hold?
If they do win on Tuesday night, the Rebel Alliance will table their anti–no-deal legislation on Wednesday and try to ram it through all the Commons processes in a single day.
If the bill makes it through the Commons, Johnson has indicated that on Thursday he will call a vote on whether to hold a general election on Oct. 14.
5. Will Corbyn vote for an election?
So let’s say the Rebel Alliance wins, the anti–no-deal legislation passes. In that scenario, Johnson has said he’ll try to call an election. He needs two-thirds of the Commons to trigger an election.
Labour MPs are warning Jeremy Corbyn: DO NOT FALL FOR IT.
They reckon it’s a trap laid by Johnson, and that he could change the date after an election is agreed. Imagine everyone agrees to an election, then Johnson sets the election date to AFTER the Brexit deadline. It’s crazy, but we’re already in Crazytown.
Instead, Labour could seek to lock in the anti–no-deal law and guarantee that the UK can’t fall out of the EU without a deal during an election period.
6. What happens if Johnson can’t call an election?
It’s possible that the Rebel Alliance could pass their anti–no-deal law and then use their control of the Commons order paper to stop Johnson from having a vote on an election. Or, if there is a vote on an election, Corbyn and the rebels could vote against — under the Fixed-term Parliament Act, Johnson needs a two-thirds majority. This would somewhat thwart the PM’s plan.
cant get ahold of my brexit adviser
Then Johnson would have to rely on further extraordinary measures to keep his promise to leave the EU with or without a deal on Oct. 31. He could try to bypass the Fixed-term Parliament Act. You can read all about the other things he could try here.
This is the worst-case scenario for Johnson — he would essentially be in office but out of power. It is unclear how he would then proceed.