This Criminologist Says Nigel Farage Is Talking "Nonsense" About Rape Rates In Sweden

    Is Malmö the "rape capital of Europe", as Farage claims? TL;DR: no.

    You may have noticed that people on the right of the political spectrum have been getting very exercised about Sweden recently.

    It's all in the wake of Donald Trump making an odd comment the other day about "what's happening last night in Sweden" when, as far as anyone could work out, nothing very much had happened in Sweden.

    The line being taken by Trump and his supporters now is that although nothing specific happened in Sweden that particular night, lots of bad things are happening in Sweden all the time, and it's because of mass immigration from Muslim countries.

    After that, Paul Joseph Watson, the editor of the right-wing conspiracy site InfoWars, offered to send journalists to "crime-ridden migrant suburbs of Malmö", Sweden's third-biggest city. Lots of people wanted to take him up on his offer.

    Then, last night, Nigel Farage, Britain's own Trumpian far-right populist, said on his LBC programme – and again on Twitter – that Malmö, in fact, was the "rape capital of Europe".

    Malmo in Sweden is the rape capital of Europe due to EU migrant policies. Anyone who says there isn't a problem is… https://t.co/VsM8226v3a

    Anyone who says there "isn't a problem", he says, is "lying to you".

    We thought we'd ask a couple of criminologists if he's right, and – in short – it turns out he's not.

    Jerzy Sarnecki, a professor of criminology at Stockholm University, told BuzzFeed News that Farage was talking "obvious rubbish" and "complete nonsense". "Someone is lying here," he said, "but it's not us."

    Here's what's going on. Sweden does have a very high rate of reported rapes. "The official stats show very high rates," said Sarnecki. "And some politicians will claim that those rates are due to Muslim refugees."

    But this is a very different thing from the actual number of rapes that take place. Firstly, the police record crime statistics differently. "We're kind of masochistic in Sweden, in the way we count our crimes," said Sarnecki.

    Tim Newburn, a professor of criminology at the LSE, explained to BuzzFeed News: "Offences that come to the attention of the police in Sweden are always recorded as crimes.

    "So if someone makes a report of rape, that will be recorded by the police as a crime. And even if later they discover there is insufficient evidence that such a crime has taken place, it will still remain on the stats."

    Second, the legal definition of "rape" is much broader than in most countries.

    "Various kinds of sexual assault that would be counted differently in other countries are counted as rape here," said Sarnecki. "In fact there's a proposal to take the word 'rape' out of legislation altogether, because the definition has become so broad as to be almost semantically incorrect."

    Third, and very important, Sweden has made excellent progress in getting women to report rapes.

    "We have a very high degree of feminist consciousness in Sweden," said Sarnecki. "Swedish women know their rights." They're not afraid to report rapes, he said, so the percentage of women who will go to the police after a rape is much higher.

    "There's been an enormous emphasis on the police force responding appropriately and sensitively to alleged rapes," said Newburn. "It's precisely to encourage women to come forward.

    So there has been a big spike in rape stats recently, but there's no reason to think it shows a spike in actual rapes.

    "There was a huge increase in recorded rape in Sweden in the 10 years up to about 2012-2013," said Newburn. "But largely, it is thought by professionals in the field, it is a result of changes to the definition in the law, of changes to police recording practices, and of changes in women's willingness to come forward."

    He compares it to a change in statistics about some disease, like autism – "It's as though there's been a change in diagnostic criteria, and a change in GP practices, and in patient willingness to visit their GP."

    According to studies that try to take these things into account, Sweden's rate of sexual assault is about average for Europe, said Sarnecki.

    "And from 2005 to 2013, even as immigration was growing, the level of sexual assault was very stable," he said. "It's been a bit more turbulent in the last couple of years, but that's true for all countries." We can't know what Malmö's is like specifically, because there isn't any good city-level crime data. But Sarnecki would be surprised if the story is any different.

    None of this is to say that Sweden and Malmö haven't got any problems.

    "Malmö is one of Sweden's biggest cities," said Sarnecki. "It's very close to Copenhagen, very close to Europe, there are lots of refugees from many parts of the world – it's very multiethnic." And there are definite problems in the city, he said, including with gang violence and shootings in some of those areas where lots of immigrants live.

    But the claim that Malmö is the "rape capital of Europe" is just wrong, said Sarnecki, and is based on a far-right agenda.

    More than 160,000 refugees, the bulk of them from Syria, have arrived in Sweden in 2015 and 2016, said Sarnecki. "That's why Farage is talking about Malmö," he says. "Because of his anti-immigration policy.

    "There's a special agenda to show that bad things happen if you're generous to immigrants. It's not just in the UK or the US, it's in Sweden too, so many people on our extreme right support Mr Farage because that's exactly what they want to hear."

    CORRECTION

    Malmö is Sweden's third-biggest city, and Sweden received 160,000 refugees in 2015-16. An earlier version of this piece misstated these facts.