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    • asdafdrdafs 11 months ago

      Additionally, you claim that Obama “ceded ground” and Romney “pulled even” in polls according to NBC/Marist, but these were the first NBC/Marist poll of those states of the cycle, in some cases they were the first public polls of those states from a major pollster period (and the other cases, given the vastly different polling methodologies and voter population models, it’s dubious [at least] to draw a trend line between an NBC live poll and a PPP IVR poll). So there’s no real basis to say there’s been any “movement” in those states at all.

    • asdafdrdafs 11 months ago

      How about an article looking at how months and months and months of spending from Crossroads GPS and countless other anti-Obama groups has failed to move the needle? Not Drudge friendly enough? Couldn’t find a Republican pollster to provide a predictably biased comment on it? Now, I’m not a Republican campaign operative, so don’t feel obligated to quote me… but ad spending this early in the campaign typically doesn’t have any kind of noticeable effect as genuinely persuadable voters aren’t paying attention. The ads are mostly background noise, and while they arguably factor into their later decision making, nothing is going to have a huge effect on poll numbers when the people who are actually undecided are at least 3 months away from making a decision (with the exception of partisans consolidating after a primary). It arguably doesn’t have that great of an effect at any point in the campaign, especially if there’s no real difference in the amount the two campaigns are spending and/or political ads have already reached a saturation point. But that explanation is boring and makes for poor horse race coverage… BONUS TIP: Most poll “movement” in general is just statistical noise. The 5% swings in Obama/Romney support from week to week don’t represent people changing their minds. They represent statistical and methodological errors/inconsistencies.

    • asdafdrdafs 11 months ago

      In regards to point 3, why do you assume that national white voters are the same thing as Wisconsin white voters? Obama won 54% of white voters in Wisconsin in 2008, so the 43% support he got nationally is kind of irrelevant. Regardless, the polls that predicted Walker’s victory also show Obama with a comfortable lead, and exit polls revised to reflect the actual results show that last night’s electorate would have also supported Obama by a healthy margin. And given what we know from past elections, there’s little reason to believe that the voting population of a presidential election is going to be more white and conservative than a state-level election held in June. Seriously, you’re not even attempting to make anything resembling honest analysis. This is an RNC talking points memo.

    • asdafdrdafs 11 months ago

      Please everyone, ignore the fact that the so-called “Big Blue social model” has allowed countries like Canada, Germany and Sweden to withstand the effects of the recession far better than our country despite the fact that we’ve spent 3 decades cutting worker benefits, slashing social programs and deregulating the financial industry. Us simple working folk ain’t supposed to know about what goes on in other countries. Just let our aristocratic friends do the thinking and put it in simple terms that we can understand… And when you find yourself working harder for less as the years go by, don’t worry… as Mr. Ellis’s link about the collapse of “the Blue Social Model” makes clear, all these benefits and material goods we currently receive are actually the very thing making us so discontent… we really need less benefits and longer working hours to have truly fulfilling lives. And what about all the excess wealth generated by our increased productivity and lower compensation? Well, don’t worry, Mr. Ellis and his Wall Street buddies will generously take that burden for themselves and deal with all the unhappiness it will undoubtedly cause them. How nice! (Seriously Buzzfeed Politics, you suck. I didn’t think you could actually be Politico but worse, but you’ve managed it.)

    • asdafdrdafs 11 months ago

      Wrong again. The U.S. Department of Justice has intervened and ordered Florida to halt the voter purge as it may violate Federal law. Moreover, the way in which this process is being carried out and the requirements for reinstating one’s voting rights are not mandated by Florida law but were chosen by Governor Scott. If they chose, they could have pursued a more rigorous, less error-prone method just as they could have chosen a less draconian method of repeal. There’s nothing illogical about this, but if you want to whip out the logical fallacies, your assumption that the current process is the only possible means of protecting against voter fraud and properly maintaining the voter rolls is a false dilemma. Finally, I can confidently guess your political leanings by the fact that you are repeating the canard that there were 53,000 dead people voting in Florida. This lie was peddled solely on fringe right-wing web sites. While mainstream media outlets did report that a prior (less error-laden) process had purged 53,000 deceased people from voting roles, they also made it clear that there was absolutely NO indication that these names were being used as a part of a voter fraud operation (just as there is absolutely zero evidence of widespread voter fraud in Florida in general). Their presence on the list was simply a result of being previously overlooked by state officials responsible for maintaining voter rolls. So, while it’s possible that you’re a moderate or left-winger who just happens to pick up and repeat lies from fringe right-wing web sites, I somehow doubt that.

    • asdafdrdafs 11 months ago

      Wrong. These are just four examples of the over 350 people who have already responded to this wrongful attempt to strip them of their rights. We are already approaching the 50% mark for the percentage of letters already shown to be sent out in “error,” and that number will undoubtedly climb. And in the cases of people who don’t respond, it is more likely to include:
      1) people who simply don’t receive/open the letter (big reason these are being sent out during vacation season)
      2) people who won’t have the luxury of taking time off work to attend a hearing to refute these accusations
      3) elderly people who may not have the means or physical ability to attend a hearing
      4) illiterates

    • asdafdrdafs 11 months ago

      It’s true, no one is being punished for a crime, they’re being punished for not registering as Republicans… which isn’t a crime, as much as you guys would like it to be. And sorry, there were no dead people voting in Florida. It is true that the deceased are occasionally left on the voting rolls, but you don’t get to add “and they’re voting after their deaths” because that helps your argument. That’s what we in the truth business call a “lie,” and no, it doesn’t matter if the right-wing blog you will invariably reference made that claim in the headline without actually citing any evidence. Regardless, purging voting rolls of people KNOWN to be deceased is quite a bit different from purging voting rolls of people who live in counties that didn’t vote for you on the sole basis that they have a similar name to a non-ciziten resident.

    • asdafdrdafs 11 months ago

      Yes, all they have to do is take time out of their busy lives to go through a humiliating bureaucratic process to prove they didn’t commit a crime that the state has no evidence they actually committed… and I’m sure none of the people purged include poor people who can’t afford to lose work hours to attend unnecessary witch trials… If Democrats did this, you guys would be shrieking “big government tyranny” and, for once, you would be right.

    • asdafdrdafs 11 months ago

      Hey, why don’t we start arbitrarily throwing people in prison and refusing to release them until they can prove they haven’t committed any crimes? After all, the ONLY people who have anything to fear from such a policy are criminals who can’t prove their innocence. Isn’t it funny how quickly Republicans embrace tyrannical bureaucratic tactics when it provides a political advantage? Well, maybe “funny” isn’t the right word…

    • asdafdrdafs 11 months ago

      No, the system doesn’t work. The state should prove that someone is committing voter fraud before they disenfranchise them. This is like throwing someone in prison arbitrarily, asking them to prove they haven’t committed any crimes, and when they do, saying, “Hey, the system works!” No, arbitrarily denying someone their rights and forcing them to prove their innocence when there’s no evidence they did anything wrong is not how we do things in America. The way to avoid voter fraud is to have strong verification methods in place when people enroll, not to arbitrarily purge thousands of people who just happen to live in areas that voted more heavily for your opponent and demand they jump through hoops simply to be guaranteed one of the most important rights given to American citizens. Of course, the fact of the matter is that we do have such verification methods in place and voter fraud is extremely rare. The GOP’s only “evidence” for widespread voter fraud is the fact that they can’t accept that they lost an election four years ago. It’s like paranoid liberal conspiracy theories about voting machines… except in that case, the conspiracy theories didn’t involve mass wrongful (and politically motivated) disefranchisement of American citizens.

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