A fear of Ford has been sweeping Toronto but I won’t let it stop me from voting for my top pick. If you're like most people I know you wish you could vote Chow but you're thinking that a vote for Tory is the best way keep Ford out. You’re not alone. Tory’s support is bloated with the Anyone-But-Ford vote. But it makes sense to get out and vote for Olivia anyway, and here’s why:
Maybe you like Doug Ford's politics and the only reason you don't want him elected is to punish him for the global embarrassment that was his brother. On the other hand, if you'd rather not see what the city would look like under Fordian right-wing policies, then a Tory win is the last thing you want.
Tory has always been close with the Ford family, both personally and politically. Four years ago, Tory made a $2,000 donation to the campaign that put Rob Ford in the Mayor's seat. He threw a fundraiser to help him pay off his campaign debts. The architect of Ford's campaign is now working to get Tory elected.
Tory is not a drug-dealer and he won't be caught spouting anti-semitic vitriol, but he's as much a conservative as the Fords, and he's better at it.
We are used to a political landscape where voting Liberal could help keep the Conservative numbers down, but in this election the votes shifting from Olivia to Tory are simply hurting the only progressive candidate to the benefit of a different conservative. (And not a very different one at that.)
A Tory-led city would actually be led by Tory. That might sound redundant, but don't forget that RoFo never got his ferris wheel and most of our libraries stayed open. City council figured out how to work around him and there's every reason to believe that they would seamlessly continue working around his brother.
Four more years of Bumbling-Fords means more inaction while we watch Jon Stewart make fun of us. But four years of Silver-Tongued-Tory will mean being helplessly force fed the conservative agenda.
John Tory is not our Get Out of Ford Free card.
Last week, two polls were released on two consecutive days with wildly different results. The Tuesday poll scared us all with the claim that Ford is surging ahead – neck and neck with Tory – but a poll released Monday put Ford's support 14% behind. Something is clearly out of whack here.
Either the political landscape shifted dramatically overnight or these polls aren't nearly as accurate as they claim.
Both polls used Interactive Voice Response (IVR) technology to survey a "random sample" of 1,218 and 2,379 Toronto residents, respectively.
In reality, the polls are based, not on a on a random sample of 3,597 Torontonians but a random sample of those Torontonians who have a landline, were at home (many during the afternoon on a work day), didn't ignore the call when they saw a 1-800 number, didn't immediately hang up when they realized they were talking to a machine, didn't have anything better to do than talk to a machine about their political views and didn't give up in frustration at dealing with the voice-recognition software.
It's a little surprising that there are 3,597 people in Toronto who fit that description.
Pollsters also make assumptions, er, calculations, on how likely you are to vote when they are doing their secret voodoo pollster math. And guess what? The younger, less wealthy or more racialized you are, they think you are less likely to vote. As far as the polls are concerned, the retired white guy's vote is worth more than yours. (Unless you are a retired white guy, of course. Hi Barrie!)
Which means that your vote actually counts way more than it usually does.
Our last municipal election had a record-high voter turnout – a whopping 50.55% of eligible voters. But generally speaking, most of us don't bother turning up on election day. This means a few things for how municipal elections shake down but possibly the biggest one is that they're volatile.
The fewer total voters there are, the fewer it takes to swing an election. Four years ago Rob Ford got Ford Nation all riled up and they came out to vote in droves. It boosted voter-turnout by 11% – that's more than twice the number of votes that Ford won by – and it got him in power.
In provincial and federal elections if you vote one way when all your neighbors vote the other your vote is essentially discarded. But municipal elections don't work that way. It doesn't matter how your neighbors vote – every last vote for Chow counts to the final result.
Olivia Chow's approval ratings have stayed at or above 50% throughout this campaign. That's more than all the residents who actually vote in a normal election. If we get out and vote for Olivia, she will win by an unprecedented margin.
There are two weeks left in this campaign and that's a long time in politics.
Doug Ford could get arrested, John Tory could flub this election like he has every other time, Olivia could charm the pants off us all.
And most likely of all, the thousands of people who are considering strategic voting might realize that we are actually a huge voting block, we don't need to elect our second choice, we have the power to elect our first choice.
This city is humming with culture, art, food, ideas and progressive people who would love to live in Olivia Chow's Toronto.
We love our local micro-brews, spotting that building we know on our favourite "American" TV shows and we secretly enjoy watching ourselves on the Daily Show. People flock from all over to party with us at Caribana and Pride. We host a world class film festival, we hang out in some of the coolest neighbourhoods in the world and we get to eat some of the best food from all over the world.
This is the city of the Toronto Maple Leafs. We don't stop cheering for our team – not when we're the underdogs and certainly not when we have a shot at the cup!
Chow got into this campaign with strong support from all across Toronto but when the Ford campaign didn't self-destruct we got scared.
We started shifting away from Chow out of a fear of Ford. Tory seemed like the safe bet. But Tory's only campaign pledges so far are low taxes and more subways. Sound familiar?
Olivia's platform (and she is the only candidate who actually has one) lays out a clear plan for improving transit right now and in the long-term, for creating more affordable housing and better tenants rights, taking care of our kids with affordable childcare, after-school programs and nutritious meals, creating good jobs for under- and unemployed youth, and investing what makes our city great: the arts, innovative business, clean(er) air, a better waterfront and more.
I, for one, can't wait to see what the city will look like after four years of leadership from someone with as clear and positive a vision for the city as that!
If everyone who wants to see progress in Toronto gets out and votes then we will see Olivia elected. We have a real chance to build something positive. To make our home a better place to live.
On October 27th, I'll be voting for the city I want to see. Be bold Toronto.
