The country claims it is meant to serve civil purposes and that it is not related to building a nuclear bomb. The Western world claims otherwise and this is where the problem lies. There's also this significant lack of co-operation on Iran's part that further raises suspicion. Experts wanted to infiltrate the uranium facilities but Iran wouldn't allow them and of course this made the USA in particular very unhappy. We will not discuss the negotiation process that took place and that is still sort of ongoing. Instead we will focus on the problems and the benefits that this nuclear project holds.
First of if this nuclear program is indeed meant to be used for energy only it is still a big deal for the area – the Middle East to be more specific. Iran has always looked at itself as a leader or at least a central power in this region. Throughout the past decades though it has lost a significant portion of its prestige. Countries such as China, Israel and Saudi Arabia respect it less and it is looking to regain its past authority. If Iran starts relying on nuclear energy this will surely change the economic structure of the region as it will turn the country into an industry giant once again. It already exports petrol but mostly to China and India. Now if it can produce cheap energy this will affect its growth in a positive way. Iran isn't exactly the biggest exporter of anything even though many things that we buy brand new from our general stores come from this region – even big and well-known brands. So in short Iran will greatly benefit from having nuclear energy. On the other hand the bad news for everyone nearby is the fact that it will be tough to negotiate with a strong Iran. The country will establish itself as a local dominator and this will affect negatively all the smaller states around it. It might give it just enough courage to attempt something radical against Israel. Some of the other neighbouring countries are:
•Afghanistan
•Iraq
•Turkey
•India
Now what if it is a bomb they are building? Well that's bad isn't it? If Iran has a nuclear warhead then many things in the international system will change suddenly. This will be a new "player" we will need to keep in mind. The biggest advantage of the nuclear weapon is the fear of it being used and not it actually being used. When you own such a weapon you increase your international influence exponentially and all of a sudden you have a bargaining chip. Unfortunately the instability of the country along with the terrorist groups allegedly associated with the regime make this extremely dangerous. What if the weapon falls in the hands of unscrupulous terrorist groups? We can hardly negotiate with them to not launch in against London, Paris or Munich. This will be a nightmare. But even if terrorists don't manage to get their hands on the nuclear weapon Iran's government is still dangerous enough. We already mentioned the grudge between it and Israel. They are also not very close to Saudi Arabia mainly because of religious reasons but also because of the close relations between the latter and the USA.
If Iran is one of the nuclear countries in the world many international treaties will need to be re-forged and resigned as it is not really part of any of them. It is likely that the country won't be thrilled to any of them either. The only weapon that the Western World has is to impose an embargo on Iran but it needs to go through the UN. Well, it already did – an embargo was imposed only because Iran's government wouldn't let experts in their nuclear facilities. If they build a bomb then expect even worse measures by the international community even though China might not like it as it has relatively good trade relations with Iran.
Now how will the picture change if the nuclear program of Iran falls apart altogether? Well Iran will remain a big country in the region but with a lot less power than usual. The USA will be able to force its will easier in the region as the conventional military forces of Iran won't be that big of a threat. But the real problem will occur internally. Iran has invested a lot of time and money in this project and its population has been told that all this will bring glory to the state. People have been deprived of a lot of conveniences and money in order for the government to develop this project for many years now. The outrage will be huge and big politicians and even the Ayatollah might be brought down from power. Big riots and protests can be expected. All in all the government has bet a lot on this nuclear program regardless of its nature. Whether it is a bomb or not is not the biggest issue but its fulfilment rather.
We will need to keep monitoring the development of the matter especially with Russia rising back to power and with ISIS raging to the west between Iran and Israel. What the future holds for us is never certain when it comes to delicate matters such as this ones. The USA is unwilling to commit to any military actions and this might be for the best – at least for now.
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