Are Migrants Coming To The UK To Collect Out-Of-Work Benefits?

TL;DR: Doesn't look like it, according to newly published statistics.

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The UK published its first set of official immigration statistics since the Brexit vote on Thursday, showing a slight year-on-year drop in net migration to 327,000 in the year to June 2016 – still dramatically higher than the "tens of thousands" target set by the government.

The figures were broadly in line with expectations, but were accompanied by a much more detailed briefing note prepared by the Department of Work and Pensions on whether or not overseas nationals arriving in the UK were taking advantage of Britain's benefit system.

The DWP figures were based on looking at the number of registrations for new national insurance numbers (aka NiNos) – which migrants and UK citizens alike must acquire before being able to get a job in the UK. This figure is usually a lot higher than the official migration statistic as it includes people who come to the UK to work for a short-term job (for example, a few weeks on a building site).

Here's how the figures break down.

1. In the year to June 2016, 825,000 non-UK citizens registered for national insurance numbers, mostly from EU countries.

DWP

There were 825,000 new national insurance registrations over the course of the year. That doesn't necessarily mean this many people arrived in the UK over that time – the statistics have no way of knowing if someone registers the moment they get in the UK, or whether they've been here for 10 years before they first do.

What they do show is 825,000 people took a national insurance number, and thus the ability to work in the UK, over that time. The figure is down fractionally on the previous year, largely fuelled by a drop in the number of arrivals from eastern European countries.

2. Only 3% of non-UK nationals claimed out-of-work benefits within six months of registering.

DWP

Only around 1 in 30 non-UK citizens claimed any out-of-work UK benefit within six months of registering for a national insurance number – compared with more than 1 in 10 just over a decade ago.

These statistics strongly suggest most migrants registering for national insurance numbers are doing so in order to work, and that 97% of those who do either secure work or do not claim benefits once they've done so.

Overall, the DWP says, 14% of working-age UK nationals claim at least one out-of-work benefit, compared to just 5% of foreign-born adults.

3. The number of foreign-born adults claiming benefits in the UK has been falling since 2013.

DWP

In total, 359,000 of the UK's 4.9 million working-age benefit claimants were registered as overseas citizens – around 7% of the total.

4. The majority of those people are non-EU citizens.

DWP

The right of EU nationals to freely move to the UK, work here, and claim benefits, was one of the most contentious during the Brexit debate, and Theresa May said that any Brexit deal would curtail this "free movement" guaranteed to EU members.

However, the figures suggest this may not have a huge impact on the UK's benefit bill, as two-thirds of overseas nationals claiming out-of-work benefit originated from non-EU countries, the statistics suggest.

5. Foreign-born benefit claimants are much more likely to be claiming jobseeker's allowance than a disability benefit.

DWP

DWP

6. London was by far the most popular region for new national insurance registrations.

DWP

Looking at all 825,000 registrations in the last year – not just the small fraction claiming benefits – the figures show how unequal the distribution of new registrees across the UK is.

Wales, Northern Ireland, and the North East of England each only saw new registrations in the low tens of thousands.

London, by contrast, had more than 300,000 new registrations – 39% of the total, and three times as many as the South East, the second-highest region.

7. Finally, the "traditional" EU nations were the biggest source of new registrations.

DWP

The (slightly jargony) chart above shows the country of origin of the people who registered for new national insurance numbers.

EU15 refers to 15 longstanding EU countries, including France, Spain, and Germany, and makes up the largest group of registrations.

It is closely followed by the EU2 countries – Romania and Bulgaria – countries whose citizens only recently gained the automatic right to live and work in the UK.

The EU8 countries, the third-largest group, is the block of eastern European countries that who joined a little earlier, including Poland. Registrations from these countries were last year down more than half from their peak in 2007, as the initial flurry of people following EU ascension slows.