What Next For UKIP?
UKIP could be at risk of slipping back into the United Kingdom's political margins.
What Next for UKIP?
It was only around this time last year that UKIP announced they were targeting at least 20 seats at the general election. Emerging triumphant from the local council elections, where the party gained over 150 seats, there was talk of a genuine challenge to the Westminster establishment and the rise of an alternative party capable of taking a large share of the national vote.
By-elections initiated as a result of Conservative MP defections to UKIP led to victories in Clacton and Rochester and Strood, giving Nigel Farage's party its first members of parliament and seemingly laying a foundation for more in-roads at the general election.
What was striking was not just the fact that Conservative MPs were apparently beginning to view UKIP as a genuine political option, nor that the party gained its first parliamentary seats. What was striking was the huge strength of the UKIP vote; in Clacton, Douglas Carswell attained 59.7% of the vote, a swing of 44.1% away from the Conservative Party.
Indeed, both the Conservatives and Labour were clearly affected by the growth of UKIP; immigration was a pressing issue during this election campaign, as both parties promised stricter controls upon numbers arriving in England, as well as limitations to the welfare payments which migrants were entitled to. The Conservatives even promised a referendum on EU membership in 2017, a potentially dangerous move which demonstrated just how worried David Cameron grew as a consequence of UKIP's growth.
It appeared that Farage and co could expect an increased Westminster presence, with some even predicting an involvement in a coalition due to the anticipated hung parliament. Polls showed that a Conservative majority was unlikely, leaving the probability of an in-out referendum slim; the result of this would have been the disillusionment of many, voters who were increasingly likely to offer the anti-EU UKIP their support as a consequence.
The reality, however, has unfolded very differently.
UKIP, despite winning 13% of the vote at the general election (the third largest in the United Kingdom), find themselves with just one seat. Nigel Farage failed – for the seventh time – to gain election to parliament, whilst Tory defector Mark Reckless lost the seat which had become UKIP's at the Rochester and Strood by-election. Even Douglas Carswell's seemingly safe seat in Clacton was threatened; his majority tumbled from 12,404 to just 3,437. To make matters worse, the Conservatives secured an unprecedented majority, making an EU referendum in 2017 all but inevitable.
This leaves us with the question: what next for UKIP?
The party will undoubtedly be seriously threatened by the in-out referendum. UKIP's euroscepticism is their unique selling point, the point upon which the party's whole identity is balanced. A referendum upon EU membership, then, renders this virtually meaningless; the public are given the opportunity to voice their opinion without the necessity of giving UKIP increased power. Whilst I am not neglecting the other policies which the party have put forward, it is an undeniable truth that the vast majority of UKIP support derives from their opposition to EU membership and their highlighting of the issues which they believe this entails.
As a result, UKIP are left without a clear message, without the identity which endeared the party to a meaningful proportion of the UK public. This is a dangerous position to be in, and, without a large shift in direction, could leave UKIP in a vulnerable position with little available options to propel themselves back towards significance.
There may be some who argue that UKIP will benefit from a referendum on EU membership, just as they claim the SNP have attracted significant support as a result of the 'yes' campaign in 2014. However, with the Conservatives, Labour, the Liberal Democrats and the Green Party all likely to support a continuation of the UK's involvement with the EU, UKIP could be overwhelmed by opposition and find themselves damaged to an even greater extent.
Furthermore, there is an argument that the independence referendum actually contributed little to the SNP's shocking success in this election. A number of political commentators, such as Another Angry Voice, have voiced their belief that it was the SNP's lucid anti-austerity campaign which resulted in the vast success Nicola Sturgeon's party experienced, and as such this leaves us in further doubt that an in-out referendum on EU membership will bolster UKIP support. It is far more likely to detract from the party.
The loss of Nigel Farage is also a significant blow to UKIP hopes of further progression. Despite never being elected to parliament, Farage is undoubtedly the face of his party; it is he who has forged the concept that UKIP is the party of the everyday voter through his beer-drinking, cigarette-smoking lifestyle. It is he who has engaged with the voters of the United Kingdom and made people feel as though UKIP offer a genuine alternative to the established parties.
As a result, Farage's inability to win his Thanet South seat and subsequent resignation as UKIP party leader will be a huge impairment to 'kipper' hopes of future parliamentary strides. Douglas Carswell, now the party's only MP, has already said that he does not aspire to leadership, and the election of another non-MP as UKIP's leader will lead to voters viewing the party as an unrealistic option to govern the country.
UKIP has been frequently criticised as a 'one-man party'; it was Farage who provided the momentum for his party's campaign, Farage who has propelled UKIP to a higher percentage of the vote than the Liberal Democrats. Without him, much of UKIP's marketing ability is lost. Whilst Farage has hinted that he may run again for party leadership in September, this is currently unclear, and the identity which voters have felt with UKIP may be lost in the coming months.
The final barrier which leaves UKIP's next steps uncertain is the 'first past the post' voting system. There is strong opposition to this system at present, with many arguing that it causes disproportionate results and labelling it 'antiquated'. It was 'first past the post' which left UKIP with just one seat, despite it commanding the third highest proportion of the United Kingdom's vote and finishing second in over 90 seats. Farage, in a speech following his loss to Craig Mackinlay in Thanet South, called for 'real, genuine, radical reform' to the electoral system, and, if this does not occur, it will be a veritable object to UKIP progression.
However, there is a strong possibility that reform will not take place – at least not in time for UKIP to prevent a decline in fortunes, anyway. The fact that the party possesses just one seat in parliament means that its influence in Westminster is minute, despite Farage claiming that UKIP will lead the charge for electoral reform. This, coupled with a Conservative majority which currently benefits from the voting system, means that change is unlikely.
In addition, there is the possibility that reform may be rejected by the UK public. The referendum on the alternative vote system resulted in a convincing rejection of this method of reform, with 67.9% of voters opposing it. On top of the conclusive margin of defeat, there was also a disappointing voter turnout, with only 42.2% of the population actually voting. This suggests that the UK public are uninterested in electoral reform, undermining the argument that they simply preferred another form of reform.
Without electoral reform, UKIP's future progress will clearly be severely inhibited should the party retain the level of support which it received at this election. However, this may not be the case as a result of the EU referendum and Nigel Farage's resignation.
With a lack of real parliamentary presence and the potential that its main principle will be rendered irrelevant by the surprise majority of the incoming government, UKIP find themselves at real risk of slipping back into the margins of UK politics.
Become a Community Contributor.
