5 Ways That The 2015 General Election Will Be Won And Lost In UK Cities

The next UK General Election is less than a year away. The media frenzy and detail of the campaigns will focus on issues that matter most to voters, like jobs, housing, wages and welfare. But what’s less likely to be top of the agenda is a striking fact: the fortunes of each of the major political parties depend upon how they perform in, and help support, UK cities. Here's 5 reasons why:

1. Two thirds of key marginal seats are located in urban areas

As the map above shows, of the top fifty target seats identified by the three main political parties ahead of the 2015 Election, two thirds (those shaded green) are located in urban areas - not just in the north of England, but all across the UK.

Cast the net a little wider, and of the 194 seats with the lowest majorities heading in to polling day, three fifths are in urban areas, and virtually all are within the travel to work areas of the UK’s 64 largest cities.

This means the pressures cities face will at least partly shape the preferences and needs of voters in the majority of marginal seats in 2015. Whether it is reducing traffic jams or the crush on the morning commute, improving buses and trains, more jobs or new homes, politicians from all parties looking to tip the balance in these urban battlegrounds will need to understand and respond to the needs of urban voters.

Find out more at www.thinkcities.org.uk

2. Cities are key to providing more and better jobs

As the map above shows, the UK economy is concentrated in our cities.

Over half of all businesses, nearly two thirds of all jobs, and three quarters of high-skilled jobs and in the UK are located in our 64 biggest cities. And the rate at which cities are creating extra jobs is faster than anywhere else - since the end of the recession, over 90% of all new private sector jobs have been created in cities, providing work for their residents and people living in surrounding areas.

For the next Government to create more and better jobs, improve wages and living standards in places like Bolton West, or Dudley North, Greater Manchester and Greater Birmingham must be empowered to provide the infrastructure and skills that businesses need to grow in the years ahead.

3. Cities are at the heart of the housing crisis

Housing in the UK is in crisis, mainly because the supply of new homes has failed to keep up with demand. But this is not a national crisis, as is commonly thought – instead it is one playing out on the streets of the most successful cities.

People living in Oxford, Cambridge, York, and of course London, are facing rising housing costs compared to wages and the supply of homes available to buy or rent in these cities is not keeping up with demand.

In contrast, it’s not a lack of houses causing problems in cities such as Barnsley, Blackpool and Bolton, but the number of empty homes which is discouraging new residents and blighting local areas. Here, improving quality rather than boosting supply is the issue.

So we can only tackle the housing crisis by tailoring policies to the needs of cities.

4. Reducing welfare spend will depend upon improving city economies

Reducing welfare spend depends upon tackling unemployment and housing challenges, which account for more than a quarter of all working age benefits.

Two thirds of payments that the Government makes in housing benefit and jobseeker's allowance goes to recipients in cities. So policies designed to reduce this spend will need to consider the issues and barriers that claimants in cities face if they are to help them into work and on to the housing ladder.

5. Prioritising cities will help protect the environment

Carbon dioxide emissions per capita are 32 per cent lower in cities than elsewhere in the UK. And if emissions per capita at the national level were on par with London (that big dirty metropolis) the UK would emit 114 million fewer tonnes of carbon dioxide per year.

A big reason for this is that density encourages public transport usage. So to respond to our environmental commitments, as well as dealing with the housing crisis, the next Government should look to increase the density of our cities to make the most of their environmental benefits.