For the past 45 years, we have been an integral member of the EU. Many of our laws and regulations have come from Europe (a point of contention for many Brexiteers). Most of our trade deals with other countries have been negotiated via the EU. As part of a group of countries, we have far more clout during trade negotiations than on our own, particularly when dealing with large economies like the US and Japan. And so many businesses, big and small, depend on seamless trade with the EU.
the Irish problem
The Good Friday agreement, which lead to peace in Northern Ireland, was signed when the idea of the UK leaving the EU was unthinkable. The conflict was long, violent and bloody and it is incredible that Northern Ireland has remained (largely) at peace since then. However, Brexit threatens to undo that peace, as it threatens the very fabric of the peace deal.
The withdrawal agreement only provides a temporary solution to this problem - the UK remaining in a customs union with the EU. But Northern Ireland would remain more closely aligned with the Irish Republic, and there would some checks at the Irish Sea. This could lead to a slow drift towards the unification of Ireland. Added to this is the fact that the SNP is unhappy with what it sees as special treatment for Northern Ireland. Scotland, like Northern Ireland, voted to remain and wants to stay in the EU, or at least within the single market. It seems likely that Scotland would demand to have a closer relationship with the EU than England and Wales. Further down the line, they could well call another independence referendum, which could lead to the break up of the United Kingdom.
Brexit will most likely hurt the economy. Leaving with a transition period and a deal in place would soften the blow, but only just. The withdrawal doesn't touch on important matters like our future trade arrangements, regulatory agreements and security agreements. All of this has yet to be agreed, and will probably take until at least the end of the transition period in December 2020. And, if the agreement ends up being rejected, the damage to the economy could be catastrophic.
The withdrawal agreement does its best to address these concerns, but does not go far enough. Moreover, the chaos in government and Parliamentary maths suggests that this withdrawal agreement may not even get through Parliament. Remainers and Leavers alike oppose the deal, and the Labour party has suggested that its members will vote against it. The EU has repeatedly stated that this deal is the best on offer and cannot be renegotiated. This means that if Parliament doesn't agree on the withdrawal agreement, we could end up crashing out of the EU without any deal, which would be bad for just about everyone.
Although the UK voted to leave the EU two years, circumstances have shown just how difficult this process is. The public were missold the idea that leaving the EU would be simple, a quick and painless process. The past 2 years have shown that this is definitely not the case. There are so many challenges facing our country right now, including a rise in violent crime, cyber crime, an aging population, increasing inequality, homelessness and the potential for new technology to disrupt the job market. But we cannot devote the time to solving these problems, as Brexit is such a time-consuming process. There are no quick fixes, no clear road ahead to follow, and time is short.
The withdrawal bill tries to solve many of the issues facing the UK during the transition period, but shows that even during this time, we will be in a worse off position than we are within the EU. We will remain in the customs union and so will have to follow EU rules and regulations without having a say in them. We will be subject to ECJ rules but have no hand in picking judges. And our future relationship with the EU will still have to be negotiated. In light of what we know now - that we will be worse off during the transition period than we currently are, shows that we need another referendum.
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