14 Guidelines For Sensible US Middle East Policy.

TLDR: Work with anyone who will work with us, Interests matter more than religion or ideology, power vacuums are very bad, corruption & anarchy are very bad. ISIS and Iran could potentially become allies. If given the proper motivation.

1. The Devil you know is almost always better than the devil you don't

Very often, ok a lot of the time,the US has overthrown a dictator or despot in the Middle East, only to be dismayed at who comes after them. Usually someone worse..

2. Do not overthrow autocratic dictators; unless you plan on maintaining their infrastructure, otherwise their state will soon become a failed state.

Power vacuums are bad, autocrats are bad, anarchy is bad. Autocrats that control every aspect of society are bad. Removing those autocrats is ok, as long as you find someone from the existing regime to maintain the infrastructure while supporting US policy. Turning briefly to Chile, Augusto Pinochet was a brutal and horrible dictator, but he was a dictator that people could do business with. Pinochet was objectively better for Chile than Allende, and better than having Chile become a failed state, and or become non aligned with US Interests.

Anarchy is much worse than a policy disagreement with some tinpot Hitler. Like the time when we went in to Iraq, then dismantled the Iraqi army, then those former soldiers joined terror groups. Terrible idea. What we should have done was replaced Saddam with someone from within the Baathist regime, someone who the US can control. Democracy is not for every nation, but the appearance of democracy is. The Iraqi election of a Shi'a government that pushed the Sunnis to the margins is directly correlated to the rise of groups like ISIS.

3. Do not stand on ideology, there are still people in the region that are willing to work with the US. Some may hold contemptuous views, some may be a different religion. Work with them.

Some people are still willing to work with the US all over the middle east. If we were willing to stand on economic interests rather than Ideology, we would undoubtedly find more friends. Albeit some would be morally unsavory.

4. Do not give money and weapons to rich Saudi fuckboys, then pretend you don't know why you are fighting them.

(Yeah we helped this guy)

What did you think the son of a wealthy Saudi construction magnate would do if you gave him guns and told him to play soldier? Did you think he would stop killing people after the “Infidel” soviets left Afghanistan? Very bad idea.

5. DO NOT, arm a militia, then pull support after the mission is complete.

Power vacuums are bad. Disband the militia or help them secure power. Then build their nation to increase employment and civil society organizations. Do not leave the nation with no infrastructure. Nations with lack of infrastructure and civil society is the petri dish for terror groups to form.

6. If you do arm a militia, make sure they are not salafists or other religious extremists.

Religious people are highly irrational and will not respond to typical negotiation, salafists do not respect human rights or international law. As such are hard to negotiate with, and neigh impossible to control.

7. If you do indeed make the mistake listed in no.5 or no.6, at least ensure that the militia's ability to exert force is extinguished and that they no longer hold the reigns to power before leaving the region.

We had a chance to get rid of, the Taliban, or forge a peaceful and democratic coalition between them and the northern alliance, we missed it. Democracy has a way of reducing bloodshed. We can not kill every terrorist, but we can shift the violence from military violence to politics. As Karl Von Clausewitz once stated "Politics is war by other means" Shifting former terror groups into political parties will reduce bloodshed by a large amount. Northern Ireland is a perfect example of this

8. Lower farming tariffs, lower the corn subsidy.

US laws make it impossible for other nations to grow the same crops. The reason Afghanistan uses Opium as a cash crop as opposed to corn or Tobacco is because the later two would be too expensive as they would need to compete with cheaper US crops. So they grow opium which since it is unregulated is a major source of funding for the Taliban. Lowering these tariffs on select crops will enable failing states to sell their goods and provide for their people. Alternatively we could also legalize and regulate all drugs thus eliminating their one cash crop. But that would be cutting off the nose to spite the face

9. Israel is your ally, but their domestic policy is a PR Disaster.

Via gallup.com

The Israeli/ Palestinian conflict is a convenient red herring that middle eastern despots use to distract their people from domestic issues, it also serves as a potent recruiting tool for terror groups. Solve the Israeli Palestinian crisis, make a two state solution happen and many problems in the middle east will go away. It doesn't matter if you have to perform a coup to do it. Just do it. Israelis and Palestinians both support a two state solution.

10. The Kurds need their own state. It has been over 100 years that the allies have been promising one to them. Time to step it up and give it to them.

It will be hard to convince Iran, Iraq, Syria, and Turkey to give up land. But there is a way. Detailed in 11-13

11. Break up Syria & Iraq into 4 states.

Assad will control the western part near the Mediterranean, and that will be an Alawite nation, Central Syria and western Iraq will become a Sunni state and will be under the control of the Islamic State. Iran will take control over eastern Iraq which is prominently Shia. Turkey, Iraq, Iran and Syria will cede Kurdish land to the new state of Kurdistan. In exchange for this the us will invest heavily in the domestic civilian and military infrastructure, of these nations. With the eventual goal of placing all nations in the region on one economy similar to that of the Eurozone.

12. Reach a detente with Iran and forge an alliance.

Iran has more engineers per capita than any other nation in the region, has the potential to become an economic powerhouse like India and China, and could allow the US to compete with China's "belt and road initiative". Iran and the us share security, trade and energy interests in the region. Iran can be a valuable partner if we are willing to work with them. Just look at where they are! They would be the perfect ally against Russia and China.

13. Recognize the Islamic State as a state, and offer them an alliance with the US.

Lets face it. IS is a state. They have defined boarders, a constant population and a government. We do not like their government. They are evil, undoubtedly one of the most brutal regimes in the world. But if recognizing, IS provides security for the region and if IS were to allow US goods and services to pass through safely, and If recognizing them will get the bloodshed to stop we should do it.

As for an alliance the US has worked with much worse people before and they could work with the US, with the proper encouragement. A prudent move would be to offer them US support and protection on the condition that they cease terrorist activity against the US and Her allies. If they say no then declare war and utterly destroy their entire country. With nuclear weapons if necessary.

My personal recommendation would be to Irradiate the Tigress and Euphrates river system then deploy tactical nuclear weapons over the area that IS Occupies, thus preserving the economic infrastructure, while eliminating hostiles. This would be tricky as it would undoubtedly provoke massive response from other nuclear powers. However if all nuclear powers approved this course of action, then it would be advisable.

14. The whole world needs to stop using so much oil.

The US has the technology to power the entire nation on electricity. It would be better for everyone if we did. The same goes for the rest of the world, with proper investment of course.