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Why Nigel Farage May Struggle To Get Elected To Parliament

And Nick Clegg is at risk of losing his seat to Labour.

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Conservative peer and opinion-poll enthusiast Lord Ashcroft has just published the results from his latest round of polling, which includes an analysis of party leaders' constituencies and target seats where the Lib Dems currently have a majority.

1. UKIP's Nigel Farage could struggle to make it into parliament, according to polling of his target Thanet South seat.

Despite endless publicity, Farage is still behind the Conservatives in constituency-level polling of the Kent constituency.

2. Ed Miliband faces a challenge from UKIP in his Doncaster North seat.

In his own analysis of the results, Ashcroft suggested that Conversative voters in Doncaster North might want to vote for UKIP to ensure that the Labour leader finds himself without a job next year. He said: "I wonder how many Doncaster Tories would be prepared to lend UKIP their vote, just this once?"

3. People still don't trust Labour on the economy. Even Miliband's own constituents prefer Cameron and Osborne to Miliband and Balls.

Who do you most trust to manage the economy, Doncaster North?

Lord Ashcroft@LordAshcroftFollow

Who do you most trust to manage the economy, Doncaster North?

1:05 PM - 27 Nov 14ReplyRetweetFavorite

4. Just 24% of Miliband's constituents think he would make the best prime minister of all the available candidates.

Lord Ashcroft

5. The Lib Dems are on track to hold many of their constituencies from the Tories.

Lord Ashcroft

Although it's going to be very close in a lot of Tory-Lib Dem marginals but Nick Clegg's party has a good chance.

Even though the Lib Dem vote share has fallen substantially in all of these constituencies, the Tory vote has also dropped as voters jump ship to UKIP. Without Farage's party there's a good chance the Conservatives could take many of these constituencies.

6. The Lib Dems are fighting a really strong ground campaign in Tory–Lib Dem marginals. This question asked voters if they had recently heard from each party.

Lord Ashcroft

Despite their dreadful national poll ratings, the Lib Dem ground operation is still strong, knocking on doors and delivering leaflets. More people have heard from the Lib Dems than the Conservatives in most of the seats where it matters.

This may change as the election approaches and the Conservatives are able to make the most of their superior financial resources.

7. Lib Dem voters in these seats would much prefer David Cameron as prime minister than Ed Miliband.

Lord Ashcroft

39% of Lib Dems in these marginal seats prefer Cameron to Miliband as leader.

8. UKIP has little chance of winning any of these Tory-Lib Dem marginal seats.

Lord Ashcroft

When asked which party they would definitely rule out voting for at the 2015 election, almost 60% of voters in Tory-Lib Dem marginal seats said UKIP. Which benefits the two establishment parties.

9. And the same Lib Dem voters would narrowly prefer another Tory-Lib Dem coalition to a Labour-Lib Dem deal.

Lord Ashcroft

40% of Lib Dem voters in these marginal seats would like a Tory-Lib Dem coalition.

10. That said, Nick Clegg is only narrowly ahead of Labour in his own Sheffield Hallam constituency...

(Where the top-rated politician is David Cameron.)

11. ...largely thanks to the fact that 49% of voters in Sheffield Hallam have heard from the Lib Dems in recent weeks.

Lord Ashcroft

That Lib Dem campaign team is working hard to keep the party leader in parliament. But if Labour were to swarm the seat with activists then it could be quite different.

Full source material is here and here.

Jim Waterson is a politics editor for BuzzFeed News and is based in London.

Contact Jim Waterson at jim.waterson@buzzfeed.com.

Siraj Datoo is a political reporter for BuzzFeed News and is based in London.

Contact Siraj Datoo at siraj.datoo@buzzfeed.com.

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