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What You Need To Know About The Final Poll Of The EU Referendum

YouGov's final poll of the EU referendum shows Remain was backed by the young, people with degrees, and 7% of UKIP voters.

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Polling company YouGov has released its final poll of the EU referendum, which involved talking to 4,772 UK adults on the day of the vote. They concluded the final result will probably be 52% Remain and 48% Leave.

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The company has called the referendum for Remain by a very narrow margin of victory. Their poll involved talking to people throughout Thursday who have been polled on previous occasions.

"The survey found a small move to Remain and based on these results we expect the United Kingdom to continue as a member of the European Union," said the pollster.

However, it's worth remembering that the YouGov poll didn't involve talking to people outside polling stations so it's not an exit poll – and the vote is still very close.

But what's really interesting is looking at the breakdown of the headline results by age, party allegiance, and level of education.

1. Younger people overwhelmingly backed Remain, while older voters tended to vote for Leave.

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An enormous 75% of people aged 18-24 voted for Remain, according to YouGov. This dipped to just 39% among the 65+ age group.

2. One of the single biggest indicators of voting intention was level of education. People with more educational qualifications were far more likely to vote Remain.

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Just 34% of people who left school after their GCSEs voted for Remain. But an enormous 71% of people with university degrees apparently voted to stay in the UK.

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3. A fairly significant number of people only decided how to vote on the day of the vote.

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Most voters insist they already knew how they would vote before the campaign even began but 8% of the public said they only decided in the final week of the campaign, with a further 8% saying they only made their mind up in the final 24 hours.

4. There was no significant difference in how men and women voted.

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UKIP traditionally attracts more support from men than women.

But YouGov's EU referendum poll suggest there was almost no gender difference in terms of support for either side.

Conservative voters were overwhelmingly for Leave, despite David Cameron and the Tory leadership campaigning hard for Remain.

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According to YouGov, just 43% of Conservative voters backed Remain despite most of the party's top politicians campaigning hard for that result.

Astonishingly, 7% of people who voted UKIP in 2015 told they pollster they voted for Remain.

5. Immigration mattered a lot to Leave voters while Remain voters were motivated by the economy.

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Over a quarter of Leave voters said immigration was the main issue for them in this referendum, with a further 45% said they were motivated by a desire to "strike a better balance between Britain's right to act independently, and the appropriate level of co-operation with other countries".

Meanwhile, 40% of Remain voters say they were motivated to vote because they believed it is "better for jobs, investment and the economy generally".

6. Most people expect Remain to win.

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Even though the headline voting intention figures show a very close result, just 19% of the public expect the UK will actually vote to Leave. Essentially, lots of Leave voters just aren't that hopeful that their side will triumph.

Jim Waterson is a politics editor for BuzzFeed News and is based in London.

Contact Jim Waterson at jim.waterson@buzzfeed.com.

James Ball is a special correspondent for BuzzFeed News and is based in London. PGP: here

Contact James Ball at James.Ball@buzzfeed.com.

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