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ESPN.com's Stats Projection Machine Is Drunk

It's projecting John Buck to hit 81 homers and Justin Masterson to win 44 games. Seems unrealistic.

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ESPN.com has taken Buck's season so far — this tiny sample size of 12 games — and used that to project a full 162 game season. So in 162 games, Buck is projected to do this.

So what this has made us just now realize is that rather than doing an actual projection by incorporating up-to-date data into a systematic prediction formula a la Nate Silver, ESPN seems to just pro-rate players' totals for the number of games remaining.

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