The Provisional IRA is still in existence and retains its structures “in a much reduced form”, according to a new report commissioned by the secretary of state for Northern Ireland, Theresa Villiers.
The report also found that most of the other paramilitary groups that operated during Northern Ireland’s 30-year conflict, known as "The Troubles", including the Ulster Defence Association, the Ulster Volunteer Force, and the Irish National Liberation Army, also continue to exist and recruit members.
However, the report’s authors concluded that none of these groups are involved in planning and conducting terrorist attacks, with the most serious terrorist threat coming from dissident Republican groups (which were not considered in the report), like the so-called "new IRA", although some members of the INLA have provided support to dissident Republicans.
The report was commissioned by Villiers in the wake of the murder of former IRA volunteer Kevin McGuigan in August by members of the Provisional IRA. McGuigan, who was fatally shot in front of his wife outside his home in Belfast’s Short Strand, a Republican district in the east of the city, was believed to have been murdered in retaliation for the killing of Jock Davison a few months before. Shortly before McGuigan’s murder, local newspapers had identified him as a suspect in Davison’s killing. Davison was a former senior IRA figure in the city.
The murder of McGuigan sparked a crisis in Northern Ireland’s already unstable devolved government, with the Democratic Unionist Party walking out of the Assembly. Talks between the North’s main parties are still ongoing.
Today’s report, based on findings from MI5 and Northern Ireland’s police service, the PSNI, has concluded that while members of PIRA and the other paramilitary groups have continued to engage in violence and criminal activity such as drug dealing and large-scale smuggling, they’re unlikely to mount a terrorist campaign again and would be “unable to resurrect the capability demonstrated at their peak.”
The report read: “The PIRA of the Troubles era is well beyond recall. It is our firm assessment that PIRA’s leadership remains committed to the peace process and its aim of achieving a united Ireland by political means. The group is not involved in targeting or conducting terrorist attacks against the State or its representatives. There have only been very limited indications of dissent to date and we judge that this has been addressed effectively by the leadership.”
It also found that PIRA has not decommissioned all of its weaponry.
While the report said that the leadership of all NI paramilitary groups are committed to peace, its authors noted that the UVF and UDA’s leadership have “limited control” over the activities of their members, with some senior figures engaging in serious criminal activity.
The report held few surprises, with most of Northern Ireland's political commentators and journalists having already guessed its conclusions. In a recent newspaper column, veteran journalist Suzanne Breen wrote: “Those at risk from the Provos are those who have the misfortune to cross them in their own community. Just as it’s working-class Protestants – and not Nationalists – who have most to fear from loyalist paramilitary thugs.
“So long as the UDA and UVF bully boys are targeting the likes of likes of Tracey Coulter and Jemma McGrath [Protestant victims of Loyalist violence] – as opposed to anybody on the other side of the sectarian divide – nobody in power will give a hoot.
“'They can take a beating or a bullet for the peace process' has effectively become official policy.”
While the report’s findings will come as a surprise to few in Northern Ireland, one of the most interesting insights from it is that Provisional IRA members believe its ruling body, the Army Council – which the report found still exists – “oversees both PIRA and Sinn Fein with an overarching strategy.” While Northern Ireland’s deputy first minister, Sinn Fein’s Martin McGuinness, denied this in a press conference afterwards, insisting that the party takes orders from no one, it could emerge as a sticking point in talks over the coming days.
Following the report's publication, Northern Ireland’s first minister, DUP leader Peter Robinson, announced that the party would return to the executive today, with ministers being appointed to their offices once again.