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One Chart Explaining Why It’s Getting Hard To Blame Obama For The Economy

This chart tracks the four-week moving average of initial jobless claims, beginning in January of 2008. And while the economy isn’t booming, it’s a vivid illustration that the labor market has, on Obama’s watch, been healing.

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One Chart Explaining Why It's Getting ...
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    15 Responses So Far

    • andrewd12 thinks One Chart Explaining Why It's Get... is Win  about a year ago
    • Reskankulous thinks One Chart Explaining Why It's Get... is Win  about a year ago
    • Korinna Romero thinks One Chart Explaining Why It's Get... is Win  about a year ago
    • Fyre thinks One Chart Explaining Why It's Get... is Win  about a year ago
    • benr11   One Chart Explaining Why It's Get... and thinks it’s Win  about a year ago
    • miesmuschel thinks One Chart Explaining Why It's Get... is Win  about a year ago
    • brandont9 thinks One Chart Explaining Why It's Get... is Win  about a year ago
    • mikec27   One Chart Explaining Why It's Get...  about a year ago
    • LionessFeathers thinks One Chart Explaining Why It's Get... is Win  about a year ago
    • fanaca   One Chart Explaining Why It's Get... and thinks it’s Win  about a year ago
    • animemando thinks One Chart Explaining Why It's Get... is Win  about a year ago
    • buttcheeksunite thinks One Chart Explaining Why It's Get... is Win  about a year ago
    • carlosv5   One Chart Explaining Why It's Get... and thinks it’s Win  about a year ago
    • trattner   One Chart Explaining Why It's Get... and thinks it’s Win  about a year ago
    • Ilaing a year ago

      I sent the chart into Ben Smith this morning. It is the four week moving average for initial jobless claims. I download the data into excel via Bloomberg links. I asked Ben to publish it without attribution. I work in finance and initial claims data is one of the more important numbers that I pay attention to. He data in the chart is easily verifiable at the BLS. The current trend in initial claims is indicative of a healing labor market. Any of you should feel free to regress claims data with other economic statistics. Here is a link to a past writeup from the impeccable John Hussman showing the relationship between initial claims and non-farm payrolls. http://www.hussman.net/wmc/wmc100222.htm Initial claims is a forward looking indicator for job growth. Yes, there are still too many people who are unemployed and their attachment to the labor force has decreased. And growth is still not good enough. But, the increasing momentum in the economy and the labor market makes Romney’s argument that Obama has made the economy worse rather difficult. Note: Hussman is currently predicting that the US is headed for a recession in 2012.

    • lizzl   One Chart Explaining Why It's Get...  about a year ago
    • jameslas   One Chart Explaining Why It's Get... and thinks it’s Win  about a year ago
    • shrinkage a year ago

      I just had some pretzels.

    • proud30lithuanian thinks One Chart Explaining Why It's Get... is Win  about a year ago
    • bradb6 thinks One Chart Explaining Why It's Get... is Win  about a year ago
    • matthewa8 thinks One Chart Explaining Why It's Get... is Win  about a year ago
    • mariannen thinks One Chart Explaining Why It's Get... is Win  about a year ago
    • Ethan   One Chart Explaining Why It's Get...  about a year ago
    • PaulSS thinks One Chart Explaining Why It's Get... is Win  about a year ago
    • davidc60   One Chart Explaining Why It's Get...  about a year ago
    • Rebecca DeWitt thinks One Chart Explaining Why It's Get... is Win  about a year ago
    • mikaylamarie thinks One Chart Explaining Why It's Get... is Win  about a year ago
    • SkelIy thinks One Chart Explaining Why It's Get... is Win  about a year ago
    • dwaynep thinks One Chart Explaining Why It's Get... is Fail  about a year ago
    • kevinv thinks One Chart Explaining Why It's Get... is Win  about a year ago
    • scottr6   One Chart Explaining Why It's Get... and thinks it’s Win  about a year ago
    • ChurroII a year ago

      Facts are for progressive elitists!

    • dwaynep a year ago

      It doesn’t mean it’s improving by much.
      The amount already unemployed is
      astronomical. Here is a real chart:
      http://data.bls.gov/pdq/SurveyOutputServlet

    • timbotown thinks One Chart Explaining Why It's Get... is Fail  about a year ago
    • daveh17 thinks One Chart Explaining Why It's Get... is Win  about a year ago
    • michizzle   One Chart Explaining Why It's Get...  about a year ago
    • Floobity   One Chart Explaining Why It's Get... and thinks it’s Win  about a year ago
    • xsmall thinks One Chart Explaining Why It's Get... is Win & LOL  about a year ago
    • adaml12   One Chart Explaining Why It's Get... and thinks it’s Win  about a year ago
    • smg7320   One Chart Explaining Why It's Get... and thinks it’s Win  about a year ago
    • PJ a year ago

      WTF, is this backwards day? 20 sensible comments for each nonsense comment, thoughtful perspectives, lack of gullibility…what in the world?

    • Denis R. a year ago

      Ok, for everyone who is not getting this: Those are Initial jobless claims. That means that this is the number of people WHO HAVE RECENTLY LOST THEIR JOBS. The fact that fewer people are losing their jobs, while at the same time we have other data showing that more jobs are being created MEANS THAT THE ECONOMY IS IMPROVING. Get it??? It ain’t rocket science, folks.

    • Koolgecko91   One Chart Explaining Why It's Get...  about a year ago
    • AmericanColleen thinks One Chart Explaining Why It's Get... is Win  about a year ago
    • dwaynep a year ago

      The problems with charts is you can take
      one set of information make them say
      what u want them to say. It’s only a piece
      of a big picture. They are effective at
      convincing apathetic people, though.

    • ManadaBitt thinks One Chart Explaining Why It's Get... is Win  about a year ago
    • colinb9   One Chart Explaining Why It's Get...  about a year ago
    • nat82 thinks One Chart Explaining Why It's Get... is Win  about a year ago
    • firedeveryday   One Chart Explaining Why It's Get... and thinks it’s Win  about a year ago
    • r0xmyface0ff thinks One Chart Explaining Why It's Get... is Win  about a year ago
    • north86 thinks One Chart Explaining Why It's Get... is Win  about a year ago
    • roxywilde thinks One Chart Explaining Why It's Get... is Win  about a year ago
    • soulstand thinks One Chart Explaining Why It's Get... is Win  about a year ago
    • mandabear82 thinks One Chart Explaining Why It's Get... is Win  about a year ago
    • xtalcase   One Chart Explaining Why It's Get... and thinks it’s Win  about a year ago
    • tauhids thinks One Chart Explaining Why It's Get... is Fail  about a year ago
    • andrewh35 thinks One Chart Explaining Why It's Get... is Win  about a year ago
    • audriusk thinks One Chart Explaining Why It's Get... is Win  about a year ago
    • malik thinks One Chart Explaining Why It's Get... is Win  about a year ago
    • justino3 thinks One Chart Explaining Why It's Get... is Fail  about a year ago
    • deaddrift   One Chart Explaining Why It's Get... and thinks it’s Old & Win  about a year ago
    • nathanjh thinks One Chart Explaining Why It's Get... is Win  about a year ago
    • emmb thinks One Chart Explaining Why It's Get... is Win  about a year ago
    • Em0987654321 thinks One Chart Explaining Why It's Get... is Win  about a year ago
    • James Broof thinks One Chart Explaining Why It's Get... is Fail  about a year ago
    • jasons14 thinks One Chart Explaining Why It's Get... is Win  about a year ago
    • jamesr17 thinks One Chart Explaining Why It's Get... is Fail  about a year ago
    • samb19 thinks One Chart Explaining Why It's Get... is Win  about a year ago
    • Douglas Heidland a year ago

      Without having a data source for reference I am going to extrapolate the following: This chart only uses inaccurate USBLS U3 employment reporting and not the more accurate U6 reporting which includes ALL the folks impacted by un/under employment. [That link is from 2008 BTW, which makes it all the more interesting] Here is more accurate information, with links, so you can do additional research yourself if you’d like: 2007 U-6: 8.5%
      2008 U-6: 10.5%
      2009 U-6: 16.2%
      2010 U-6: 16.7%
      2011 U-6: 15.9% Keep in mind these are averages of the monthly reports. Dig into those and you’ll have a true idea of how bad un/under employment really is in the United States. Finally, the statement of “it’s a vivid illustration that the labor market has, on Obama’s watch, been healing” is incorrect. Its Congress that really impacts these numbers, not the President.

    • rslpsyched a year ago

      This graph needs to define “jobless”. Is this everyone that does not have a full time job? Does it include part time or seasonal? Are people who gave up on looking for jobs considered jobless? Or just people who are looking but can’t get one? As a moderate liberal, I side with the sentiment behind the graph (i.e. Obama is doing a better job than people realize), but as a researcher the graph is really poor quality. It is uninterpretable at best and at worst it is misleading.

    • Jack Shepherd thinks One Chart Explaining Why It's Get... is Win  about a year ago
    • reddit.com readers just made One Chart Explaining Why It's Get... hotter  about a year ago
    • krisztinai a year ago

      Unemployment figures are skewed by nature. They exclude part-time workers, seasonal workers, and people who have stopped looking for work. No matter who is the president, the economic statistics do not truly represent the actual economic situation.

    • deaddrift a year ago

      … and the DJIA is a near-exact inverse of this chart, so it’s puzzling that Obama doesn’t have more corporate support.

    • James Broof a year ago

      This chart is worthless without a source.

    • jamesr17 a year ago

      This chart doesn’t take into account extensions to the unemployment benefits program. If fewer people need to re-apply then of course the graph will show a decline. This is deceptive.

    • Chris R. a year ago

      Could it also mean that people are giving up looking for jobs? Just curious.

    • FlickMontana a year ago

      That’s cool. Does it account for how the DoL counts these things? Like the part where if you stop hunting after two years, you are no longer considered part of the jobless claims? I’m not in that situation myself, but it seems that’s a thing.

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