Politics

Who Won The GOP Debate? Prediction Markets Say Jeb(!)

The debate also boosted Fiorina's (much lower) odds of snagging the nomination.

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Who won Wednesday's GOP debate? Prediction markets, which let people place bets on the presidential election, have an answer: Jeb Bush.

Using data from PredictWise, a research project that combines information from the Betfair and PredictIt markets, BuzzFeed News compared the 11 candidates' odds of winning the Republican nomination — before and 12 hours after the debate.

Bush's odds rose from 35% to 40%, consolidating his lead — latest polls be damned. Carly Fiorina's odds also improved, from 4% to 8%. Bettors reacted most harshly to Scott Walker, whose odds dropped from 8% to 4%. The full results:

Pre-DebatePost-DebateChange
Bush35%40%4.3%
Rubio14%16%1.7%
Trump15%13%-1.8%
Fiorina4%8%4.1%
Carson8%6%-1.5%
Walker8%4%-3.9%
Kasich5%4%-1.8%
Cruz3%4%0.4%
Huckabee2%4%1.5%
Christie3%1%-2.0%
Paul1%1%0.1%
Source: PredictWise odds at Weds. @ 8pm, and Thurs. @ 11am. Pre- and post-debate figures are rounded to the nearest percentage.

Jeremy Singer-Vine is the data editor for the BuzzFeed News investigative unit and is based in Washington, D.C. His secure PGP fingerprint is E2B0 63DB 0601 D634 1E9E F9AE 9F24 768F 9B4A EFB0

Contact Jeremy Singer-Vine at jeremy.singer-vine@buzzfeed.com.

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