Election forecasts are everywhere.
Even now, when every site puts Hillary Clinton well in the lead, trying to sort out what these projections actually mean can produce a high degree of WTFness.
As data reporters at BuzzFeed News, we are here to help.
The sites all say they are forecasting the election, but they have different methodologies and, at times, substantially different results.
However the different sites come up with these numbers, they all represent the odds that a candidate will win on Nov. 8, right?
One hundred times? But we’re only going to do this once. (Thank goodness!)
But we haven’t had many elections with big-league polling data. Can we be that confident?
Why have the forecasts changed so much over the course of the election, even week to week or day to day?
Another reason: Polls only capture a small slice of voters.
One more reason: $#!% happens.
Which means we'll all still keep pointlessly clicking "refresh" on those polling sites, right?
John Templon is a data reporter for BuzzFeed News and is based in New York. His secure PGP fingerprint is 2FF6 89D6 9606 812D 5663 C7CE 2DFF BE75 55E5 DF99
Contact John Templon at email@example.com.
Jeremy Singer-Vine is the data editor for the BuzzFeed News investigative unit and is based in Washington, D.C. His secure PGP fingerprint is E2B0 63DB 0601 D634 1E9E F9AE 9F24 768F 9B4A EFB0
Contact Jeremy Singer-Vine at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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