United Should Close Dulles Hub, Analyst Says, As He Cuts Rating
"Importantly, during those four years, Delta and American will be similarly working to increase earnings," he wrote. Year-to-date, United shares are up 10%, while Delta shares are up 43% and American shares are up 76%.
McAdoo panned the presentation United executives made at a November investor day event, where they outlined a $2 billion program of cost and revenue improvements.
Read: 3 Little Known Credit Card Tips for Summer Travel
It "seemed more likely to be found in a typical operating department's annual budget presentation than in a corporate presentation as to how United's results would be lifted to record levels," he wrote, noting that adjustments such as reducing…
What United should do, McAdoo argued, is to close the Dulles hub, given its proximity to the hub in Newark, N.J. Other airlines have realized synergies by closing hubs that are close together, he said, and United has already moved to close its redundant Cleveland hub. Moreover, local passengers to Washington generally prefer to fly to US Airways' hub at Reagan National. McAdoo estimated that at best, Dulles flights can get only 20% to 30% of local traffic to Washington.
"United would not operate two payroll departments, so we wonder why it would operate two hubs only 211 miles apart?" McAdoo asked. "Both hubs connect traffic from the eastern third of the country to Europe (and) connect north/south domestic traffic. By eliminating the smaller of the two hubs, United would see outsized savings and improved profitability across the entire United route network."
Read: Boeing Receives Multimillion Dollar Contract from Belavia Airlines
The Washington hub was created to compete with Continental's Newark hub. The two airlines merged in 2010, yet "almost four years after the merger, it is still competing," McAdoo said. "Today the Dulles hub is the smallest in the northeast, carrying fewer passengers to Europe than Newark, than Delta at JFK or American Airlines/US Airways in Philadelphia." In fact, Newark, with 32 daily departures to Europe, is the largest and strongest of the four.
Yet curiously, United flies Boeing (BA) 757s on two-thirds of its flights to Europe. "Typically a carrier would place its largest aircraft in its largest hub, especially if the hub were slot-limited," McAdoo wrote. "By upgauging these aircraft, we believe United would be able to move traffic currently connecting to Europe over IAD to EWR.
"United's cuts in Cleveland set the standard for whether to unwind the Washington Dulles hub," McAdoo noted. In Cleveland, he said, 17 markets with less than 10 local passengers per flight and 16 markets with generally 11 to 30 local passengers per flight were eliminated as of next month. Using the same metrics in Dulles, 65 spoke routes would be cut.