We all want a perfect NCAA tournament bracket.
So we cross our fingers and trust our gut.
But you never win, do you?
What if there were a better way?
THERE IS.
View this video on YouTube
Watch this video to learn more.
1. Fill in your bracket BEFORE Selection Sunday. Knowing the teams actually creates hidden biases.
2. In the first round of the bracket, pick two, three or four #11 or #12 upsets.
In more than 70 percent of the past 30 tournaments, one or more of both of these seeds have advanced out of this round.
3. Don’t disregard teams seeded #13, #14 and #15. Picking one #13, one #14, or both a #13 and #14 to advance is reasonable. #15 seeds are riskier.
In more than 85 percent of the past 30 tournaments, at least one of these teams has won a game in the first round.
In more than 60 percent of these tournaments, at least two of these teams have won a game.
4. Avoid picking a #16 in the first round. It’s impossible to know when one will pull off a major upset.
A #16 hasn’t won a game in 30 tournaments.
5. For your Sweet Sixteen, pick eight or nine teams seeded #1, #2 or #3. A reasonable mixture is three or four #1's; two or three #2’s; and one, two, or three #3’s.
6. Pick one team seeded #6 or worse to reach the Elite Eight.
A #6 or worse team has reached the Elite Eight in more than 83 percent of the past 30 tournaments.
7. The double-digit seed that has the best chance to reach the Final Four is #11.
#11 seeds can avoid playing a #1 seed longer than any other double-digit seed.
8. In the Elite Eight, #1 seeds are most likely to lose against a #2 or a #3 seed. These games are effectively toss-ups.
Good luck!
9. In the Final Four, teams seeded #1, #2 and #3 perform similarly in their winning percentages, particularly when they play each other. These games are effectively toss-ups.
Hold onto your luck.
10. Put one or two #1 seeds in your Final Four.
One or two #1 seeds have made it to the Final Four in 80 percent of the past 30 tournaments.
11. If you would prefer not to put #1 seeds in your Final Four, make sure you have a #2 seed there.
Only once in the past 30 tournaments has neither a #1 nor a #2 reached the Final Four.
12. #1, #2 and #3 seeds win National Championships.
Over the past 30 tournaments, 18 have been won by a #1 seed, four have been won by a #2 seed, and four have been won by a #3 seed.
For more info, check out Jacobson's website Bracket Odds.
Share This Article
