Week 5 saw misleading scores galore, some of them resulting in losing wagers. But just because some games are bad for the bankroll doesn't mean they can't be good for opportunity moving forward. Exhibit A: the picks for Week 6.
Rams +2.5 at Jacksonville
When looking back at last week's final scores, the Jaguars' 30-9 trouncing of the Steelers jumps off the screen. While Jacksonville did go into Pittsburgh and win handily, the Jaguars benefited from what may go down as the worst game in Ben Roethlisberger's career, and despite his throwing five interceptions, the Steelers held a lead in the third quarter prior to pick-sixes on back-to-back drives changing the complexion of the game. In a dream scenario for Jacksonville, Blake Bortles only had to attempt one pass in the entire second half. The home team in this one can only have to rely more on Bortles this week; that bodes well for the Rams.
Speaking of the Rams, their loss to Seattle may take the cake as Week 5's most misleading final score. Despite committing five turnovers and seeing three red zone trips result in zero points, the Rams were still in it to the end against a strong Seahawks team they outgained by more than a yard and a half per play. And while the Rams came up short in the end, we might ultimately look back on their final drive as a coming of age for Jared Goff and the offense. Down by 6, getting the ball on his own 25, with 1:09 to go and no timeouts, against Seattle's vaunted defense, Goff drove the Rams down the field and hit Cooper Kupp in the end zone for what would've been the game winner if Kupp could've corralled the pass. The final outcome not only changes the entire complexion of the Seahawks' season, but even in defeat, it validates that the Rams can respond to adversity against anyone. Next on their list: the Jaguars.
Denver -11.5 vs. Giants
While the spread is inflated in an attempt to account for the extreme situation, this is a rare case in which oddsmakers might not be able to set the line high enough.
How will the Giants score? The wide receiver corps was their only calling card on offense, and some serious carnage against the Chargers last Sunday leaves them without their top four receivers, their replacements out of necessity coming in the form of undrafted free agents of practice squad caliber. At running back, the Giants may have the NFL's worst backfield when healthy, and cluster injuries have the Giants down their two best backs. For good measure, the offensive line is a liability and Eli Manning is on his last legs. And on the other side of the ball...
...the Broncos boast what may go down as a historically good defense, in a spectacular situation - Week 4 at home, Week 5 bye, and now Week 6 at home. That's about as fresh as it gets, and give the Giants a bigger road team disadvantage than usual, several of their players in line for their first extended action due to the injuries, with the mile high altitude exacerbating fatigue.
In many instances this would set up as a lookahead spot for Denver, but off their bye and in the Sunday Night spotlight the Broncos are more likely to focus on the task at hand, much to Eli's chagrin.
Minnesota +3 vs. Green Bay
The Packers are the better team here, but they're not THAT much better. This line implies Green Bay would be a double-digit favorite over the Vikings if the home field were flipped, and that's too much.
While the Packers may not have any key offensive contributors inactive, they're nursing multiple injuries in on the offensive line and it would be no surprise for both Ty Montgomery and Jordy Nelson to be limited.
For the Vikings, Case Keenum is looking like less of a drop-off from Sam Bradford by the week, as evidenced Monday night in Chicago.
And continuing a theme of misleading results from Week 5, the 20-17 final score from Minnesota's win over the Bears doesn't do justice to the Vikings' degree of domination, with Chicago's only two touchdowns coming on a fake punt and a tipped pass that should've been intercepted.
In what may come down to a coin flip late, there seems to be an edge taking three points with the better defense and the strong home-field advantage.
Last week: 0-3
Picks of the Week: 3-2