Welcome to the crazy world of the Federal Reserve. The Fed’s policymaking committee announced no new changes Wednesday — agreeing to maintain a rock-bottom federal funds rate and $85 billion worth of bond purchases a month. Yet a small statement about the strength of the economy dominated the news. The Fed said in its statement, “Labor market conditions have shown further improvement in recent months, on balance, but the unemployment rate remains elevated” and that it sees “downside risks to the outlook for the economy and the labor market as having diminished since the fall.” Translation: The economy isn’t doing great and unemployment is still too high, but the chances that things will get significantly worse have gone down.
Key change in Fed statement: “downside risks to the outlook for the economy & the labor market as having diminished since the fall.”
Fed: Downside risks to outlook for economy, job market has diminished since the fall: Recipe for tapering?
The reason the statement about the “downside risks” matters is that people are concerned about what the Fed will do in the future, namely taper down its monthly $85 billion worth of treasury bond and mortgage-backed securities purchases. These bond purchases, or “quantitative easing” in Fed-speak, are supposed to stimulate the economy by keeping long-run interest rates low and increasing economic activity. In May, Ben Bernanke, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, said in congressional testimony that the Fed might slow down its asset purchases “in the next few meetings” if the economy continues to improve. Although that wasn’t announced today, the Fed’s statement that “economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace” and that the chances of its growth significantly declining or slowing have fallen makes it look like some kind of shrinking of bond purchases is coming. Weirdly enough, the Fed’s optimism about the economy has led to a slight downturn in the markets, with declines in the S&P and Dow, in anticipation of future tighter policy.
Wall Street Journal
The Dow slipped 56 points in the minutes after the Fed released its statement. http://t.co/SVWOzZPZyH
Here’s the Fed’s full statement:
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in May suggests that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace. Labor market conditions have shown further improvement in recent months, on balance, but the unemployment rate remains elevated. Household spending and business fixed investment advanced, and the housing sector has strengthened further, but fiscal policy is restraining economic growth. Partly reflecting transitory influences, inflation has been running below the Committee’s longer-run objective, but longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.
Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic growth will proceed at a moderate pace and the unemployment rate will gradually decline toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. The Committee sees the downside risks to the outlook for the economy and the labor market as having diminished since the fall. The Committee also anticipates that inflation over the medium term likely will run at or below its 2 percent objective.
To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with its dual mandate, the Committee decided to continue purchasing additional agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $40 billion per month and longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $45 billion per month. The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. Taken together, these actions should maintain downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative.
The Committee will closely monitor incoming information on economic and financial developments in coming months. The Committee will continue its purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate, until the outlook for the labor market has improved substantially in a context of price stability. The Committee is prepared to increase or reduce the pace of its purchases to maintain appropriate policy accommodation as the outlook for the labor market or inflation changes. In determining the size, pace, and composition of its asset purchases, the Committee will continue to take appropriate account of the likely efficacy and costs of such purchases as well as the extent of progress toward its economic objectives.
To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee expects that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends and the economic recovery strengthens. In particular, the Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that this exceptionally low range for the federal funds rate will be appropriate at least as long as the unemployment rate remains above 6-1/2 percent, inflation between one and two years ahead is projected to be no more than a half percentage point above the Committee’s 2 percent longer-run goal, and longer-term inflation expectations continue to be well anchored. In determining how long to maintain a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy, the Committee will also consider other information, including additional measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial developments. When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Charles L. Evans; Jerome H. Powell; Sarah Bloom Raskin; Eric S. Rosengren; Jeremy C. Stein; Daniel K. Tarullo; and Janet L. Yellen. Voting against the action was James Bullard, who believed that the Committee should signal more strongly its willingness to defend its inflation goal in light of recent low inflation readings, and Esther L. George, who was concerned that the continued high level of monetary accommodation increased the risks of future economic and financial imbalances and, over time, could cause an increase in long-term inflation expectations.
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