New data released from the Obama campaign about how well they are doing in key swing states is certainly a good sign for President Obama’s re election prospects. In fact, the not well but very well one could say.
These numbers deal primarily with two specific areas.
1. Voter Registration
2. Early Voting.
Lets analyze them:
The Obama Campaign now has more registered voters in all key swing states except Colorado and New Hampshire and have registered more voters in all swing states than the Republicans. They have surpassed their own numbers of 2008. To put it plainly, with all the news splashing around about debates, Libya, Binder full etc, if one looks at the grassroots level, the Obama campaign is slowly but surely scripting a victory – stuff which is heard around on the news.
Iowa: We lead in vote-by-mail ballots cast, in-person early voting, total voting and total ballots requested. We also lead by a wider margin than we did at this point in 2008 in both ballots requested and ballots cast.
Ohio: We lead in ballots requested and ballots cast and are ahead of where we were at this time against John McCain.
Florida: At this point in 2008, Republicans outnumbered Democrats among absentee mail voters by more than 245,000. This year, Democrats have cut that margin to just 70,000 – an improvement of 175,000.
Nevada: At this point in 2008, Republicans outnumbered Democrats in absentee ballot requests by more than 8,000. This year, Democrats are in the lead.
North Carolina: At this point in 2008, Republicans outnumbered Democrats in absentee ballot requests by more than 39,000. Today, that margin is down to less than 34,000.
At this point in 2008, Republicans had an absentee ballot request advantage of 259,000 ballot requests in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, North Carolina and Nevada. In 2012, Democrats have cut that margin by 75 percent to just 64,000.
OFA has also been highly effective at registering Latinos in the swing states, a demographic that leans heavily Democratic. They’ve been especially effective registering young Latinos. In fact, in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, North Carolina, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin, 79% or more of the new registrations since August 1st have been under age 30, women, African American or Latino.
With regard to early voting, nearly twice as many Democrats requested early voting ballots than Republicans in Iowa and they are ahead of where they were in 2008. In Ohio, the lead in ballots requested and in number of ballots already cast, too.
Finally, by this point in 2008, Republican requests for early ballots had outpaced Democrats by 259,000. The gap this year? Only 64,000.