macduff

• Activity (9)

• macduff

• macduff

Not that it changes anything, but #7 is shallots, not onions.

• macduff

It’s March 20th in the US.

• macduff

A couple things wrong with #3: 1) Adding all the digits may sum up to more than 9. In that case, you’d have to add the digits of the sum to get a new sum (and keep doing this until it’s a single digit). 2) It doesn’t work if the sum is exactly 9. Example: 27_ can be 30*9 = 270 or 31*9=279.

• macduff

Wow, you’re a little ignorant on the subject. The name officially changed in the 20th century though Iran can still be referred to as Persia. However, Persian is also considered an ethnicity, so a country of Persia does not need to exist for there to be Persians.

• macduff

It’s 8% interest. Not a wonderful deal for the Mets, but not terrible either, especially given that the stock market had double digit percent returns at the time. Pretty meaningless article if you ask me.

• macduff

Using the intrade payoffs, Nate Silver’s numbers on conditional probabilities on OH, and a CARA utility function, rho would have to be around 0.5 for this to make any sense. Seems pretty low a value for rho to me. Personally, I wouldn’t take a 2% chance of losing \$1000 to make \$20 (or make \$1000 w/ 2.7% probability).

• macduff

This is the kind of thinking that caused pretty much every financial crisis in the last century. The chance of losing that 9.81 is NOT 0%. It’s very low (my guess is about 0.5%), but you’re putting up a lot of money for that 99.5% likelihood. You’re taking 200:1 odds of losing your money for a 50:1 investment. Most rational risk-averse people would stay the hell away from this “arbitrage.”