New Poll Shows Alabama Senate Is A Just 6-Point Race

In a poll commissioned by Decision Desk HQ of likely voters, Republican nominee Roy Moore leads Democrat Doug Jones 50.2% to 44.5%.

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Roy Moore

The Senate race in deep-red Alabama might be within reach for Democrats, after the Republican nomination of Roy Moore.

The poll, conducted by Opinion Savvy and commissioned by Decision Desk HQ, finds that Moore leads Democratic opponent Doug Jones 50.2% to 44.5%.

While still not a close-close race, that's definitely closer than a normal Senate race in Alabama for an off year. The poll is of 590 likely voters in the state reached this week by landline and mobile, with a margin of error of 4 points. (Full methodology here.)

Though he is well-known and has a built-in set of supporters in the state, Moore has a long and complicated history in Alabama and nationally: He was twice removed from the state's Supreme Court for refusing to follow federal rulings.

He's suggested various national tragedies — including 9/11 — happened because of what he calls the United States turning away from Christianity. He's written columns for World Net Daily, a fringe right-wing site known for pushing birther conspiracy theories about President Obama. And he has a long history of making anti-gay comments, as well as opposing Keith Ellison's being in Congress because he is Muslim, and another man from serving in the George W. Bush administration because he was an "admitted homosexual."

Jones, meanwhile, is a former US attorney backed in particular by former vice president Joe Biden. Winning in Alabama for a Democrat, though, even with an extreme candidate like Moore on the ticket, seems like a tall feat.

"Any time you get a result that seems to run totally contrary to the conventional wisdom of a state's politics, it gives you pause," said Brandon Finnigan, the executive director of Decision Desk. "However, Roy Moore barely won his election as chief justice to the state Supreme Court in 2012, underperforming presidential candidate Mitt Romney by 18 points. I still have difficulty seeing him lose in Alabama — even in the surprisingly close South Carolina 5th Congressional special, the Republican still won. But in a special held 13 days before Christmas? Who knows."

The poll also found that 56.1% of voters somewhat or strongly opposed "efforts within the state of Alabama to remove monuments to the Confederacy from public grounds," while 34.6% strongly or somewhat supported the efforts.

And when it came to the protests in the NFL that have become the source of a week's worth of Trump commentary and a year's worth of tense debate, that margin was slightly different. Per the poll's phrasing, 53.4% strongly or somewhat oppose the protest of what some players call "a country that oppresses black people and people of color" — while 41.7% somewhat or strongly support the players.

BuzzFeed News has partnered with Decision Desk HQ for live election results coverage in 2018.

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Other perspectives on this story

• 1 People don't think spending will win the seat for Democrats, but it could lay the groundwork for future victory.
• 2 One person pointed out that Democrats have felt excited before, only to lose in the end.
• 3 Another sees an opportunity to use Moore to weaken other congressional Republicans.
• 4 Jones' campaign needs to focus less on Moore and more on what Jones can offer, a few people said.
• 5 Others just want Democratic leaders to stay out of Alabama and think entering the race can only hurt them.
• 6 A six-point deficit doesn't seem insurmountable to many.

• 1
  1/6

  "My prediction. Pundit buzz will be to tone down his message but he'll run super hard anti-Muslim culture war scorched earth and win by 15. I actually support spending. Money is basically unlimited. You spend to get younger people involved. Play long game. But no way they win"

  @jdbatts79
• 2
  2/6

  "Let's all get excited for seemingly possible win in red district & then get let down again. Then @GOP & Trump can do another victory dance."

  @Chris_in_MA
• 3
  3/6

  "I would be completely shocked if Moore lost. That said, I still want Dems to put some money into the race. I was watching one of the shows the other day, and they said a great Democratic strategy would be to force congressional Republicans to defend Roy Moore."

  /u/girliegirl1234
• 4
  4/6

  "Please get word to Jones campaign to not JUST run on what a nutter Moore is. Did not work last year. Won't work this year."

  @BeadwindowISR
• 5
  5/6

  "National Dem Party Leaders need to stay away from Alabama. It will be kiss of death for anyone to go to Alabama from Party leadership."

  @pjsandiegosdca
• 6
  6/6

  "let's see what resources the D's commit and who from the class of '20 goes there to fight for this one. 6 is doable."

  @JK312

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