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Be Careful About Sharing That Statistic About Rape In South Africa

A horrifying number making the rounds is almost 20 years old.

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On Thursday, a British TV report about South Africa included a pretty shocking statistic. The report said that one woman or child is raped there every 26 seconds.

In South Africa, it's estimated a woman/girl is raped every 26 seconds, including 'Ruth': https://t.co/ziLapfaFfA https://t.co/8igsRo4AIw

South Africa's problem with crime, including rape, is well known. But that number sounded awfully high to the staff at Africa Check, a non-profit group devoted to accuracy in news from or about Africa.

@SkyNews @AlexCrawfordSky Please can you provide the source for this statistic?

They asked Sky News what the deal was but they didn't get a reply.

. @AfricaCheck has been asking @SkyNews and @AlexCrawfordSky for a source for more than a day – no reply yet :( https://t.co/3oP8FdLDfg

Turns out, Sky News isn't the first media company to use this figure. The New York Times published the same statistic in a 2012 op-ed, citing Doctors Without Borders, also known as MSF. But used the wrong link.

MSF used the same source that the BBC did three years earlier in 2006. And the BBC used the same source as another article, from 2003. And before that, in 2000, the same fact turned up in a CBS report — with no citation at all.

Instagram: @nitwajina

We also found a lot of articles that called South Africa the "rape capital of the world" — and called out Khayelitsha, a township in Cape Town that's pictured here, as the place with the highest rates of rape in that alleged "capital." (Africa Check has a good debunking of that claim — and some wise words against calling any place a "rape capital.")

In 1999, Theron — who is South African — filmed an anti-rape message called "Real Men Don't Rape." In the 45-second spot, Theron says, "Every 26 seconds a woman is raped in South Africa."

View this video on YouTube

youtube.com

That figure was an extrapolation by a rape crisis center Theron made the ad for. There's no mention of that figure on their website today, but an archived page explains their thinking — and notes how complicated it can be to estimate rape prevalence. Extrapolations like this one often sound logical — but they're rarely considered statistically accurate by, well, statisticians.

It's pretty common for advocacy organizations to do basic back-of-the-envelope math, and a little rounding, to make statistics more "digestible." Africa Check has previously called out other bad "statistics."

Rape Crisis Cape Town

We made this GIF from the archived homepage of Rape Crisis Cape Town, the organization behind Theron's ad.

And even without a statistic degree, these claims can get ridiculous pretty fast. Like, for example, that "one rape every 26 seconds" thing?

This suggests 1.1m women & children are raped annually. Is this figure correct @SAPoliceService ? https://t.co/yLUbPLgXmV

Because that would be 2 people every minute. Or 2880 women a every day. And 1,051,200 a year.

The takeaway? The statistic that's caught the Internet's eye is 17 years old. If it was ever really true, chances are, that day has come and gone.

H/T Nechama Brodie and the Africa Check team.

(But all the Googling and any related errors or omissions are just mine.)

Jina Moore is the global women's rights correspondent for BuzzFeed News and is based in Berlin.

Contact Jina Moore at jina.moore@buzzfeed.com.

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