My 2011 Oscar Statistical Predictions

I’m approaching my predictions on a statistical level. Correlating the winners of the major awards that lead up to the Oscars with those that have actually won the Oscars. I’m looking at the DGA awards, SAG, Golden Globe, BAFTA, Art Director’s Guild, Costume Designer’s Guild, etc.. Some I also go with my gut feeling. Please take this all with a grain a salt. Just doing it for fun and maybe my method is flawed.