1. Jacksonville: 150/1
GOOD BET: They’ve got WR Justin Blackmon and the No. 2 pick in the draft!
BAD BET: They’re the Jacksonville Jaguars.
2. Oakland Raiders: 150/1
GOOD BET: This may finally be the season RB Darren McFadden plays more than 13 games.
BAD BET: The Chiefs have a brighter immediate future. (Yeesh.)
3. Tennessee Titans: 100/1
GOOD BET: Jake Locker gives the Titans a legit QB option not seen since the days of McNair.
BAD BET: Can Chris Johnson return to CJ2K levels of dominance? Outlook hazy.
4. Buffalo Bills: 100/1
GOOD BET: New coach Doug Marrone will lean heavily on C.J. Spiller and his team’s sixth-ranked rushing attack …
BAD BET: … but his 21st-ranked scoring offense will continue to struggle mightily.
5. Arizona Cardinals: 100/1
GOOD BET: Bruce Arians, who was 9-3 as Colts interim coach last season, takes the helm in Glendale.
BAD BET: Beyond WR Larry Fitzgerald, consistency questions abound in all areas.
6. Cleveland Browns: 66/1
GOOD BET: RB Trent Richardson (950 yards, 11 TDs) exceeded all expectations.
BAD BET: Brandon Weeden is not the answer at QB, but he’s the best they’ve got (for now).
7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 60/1
GOOD BET: Seven of nine losses were by one score – a trend that can’t possibly continue.
BAD BET: The pass defense, once a franchise stalwart, ranked dead-last in the NFL.
8. Kansas City Chiefs: 50/1
GOOD BET: They’ve got the No. 1 pick and a new coach (Andy Reid) with a history of success.
BAD BET: Beyond RB Jamaal Charles (1,509 yards), KC has skill-position questions across the board.
9. St. Louis Rams: 50/1
GOOD BET: QB Sam Bradford (3,709 yards, 21 TDs) has the goods to lead the Rams deep into January.
BAD BET: The NFC West, with San Francisco and Seattle, may be the toughest division in football.
10. Miami Dolphins: 50/1
GOOD BET: Miami has five draft picks among the first 82, and QB Ryan Tannehill, who started every game last season as a rookie, could be the real deal.
BAD BET: Reggie Bush (1,278 all-purpose yards) isn’t the longtime answer at RB, but lack of team depth may keep him starting.
12. Carolina Panthers: 50/1
GOOD BET: Cam Newton, among other contemporaries, is redefining the QB position in real-time.
BAD BET: Chronic questionable play-calling in late-game situations likely makes this season playoffs or bust for head coach Ron Rivera.
13. Philadelphia Eagles: 50/1
GOOD BET: New coach Chip Kelly’s offensive schemes may make RB LeSean McCoy (1,309 yards and 17 TDs in 2011) even more lethal, if that’s possible.
BAD BET: Mike Vick’s health and consistency will need to be addressed sooner than later, but the defense (29th in points allowed) is the more pressing concern.
14. San Diego Chargers: 40/1
GOOD BET: New coach Mike McCoy, formerly Denver’s offensive coordinator, is not Norv Turner, so that’s a net-positive.
BAD BET: A mixed bag of a running game and QB Philip Rivers penchant for ill-timed turnovers (22 in all) derailed San Diego’s best efforts all season.
15. Minnesota Vikings: 40/1
GOOD BET: NFL MVP Adrian Peterson, the league’s most devastatingly talented player, is back to being the player he always was. Can he break 2,500 rushing yards? Wouldn’t bet against him.
BAD BET: With Peterson behind him, all QB Christian Ponder needs to do is be more competent as game manager. Hopes are high up north that he’s got the goods.
16. Detroit Lions: 40/1
GOOD BET: Having WR Calvin Johnson (1,964 receiving yards) means any deep pass from Matthew Stafford could turn into a scoring play.
BAD BET: A middling 13th-ranked defense (341.1 yards/game) needs more stops to keep its third-ranked offense on the field.
17. Indianapolis Colts: 40/1
GOOD BET: QB Andrew Luck (4,374 yards, 23 TDs) lived up to all the hype this season.
BAD BET: Personnel changes in the front office could muddle decision-making in Indy, and an aging defense needs to be addressed through the draft.
18. Cincinnati Bengals: 35/1
GOOD BET: WR A.J. Green saw twice as many snaps in the slot as in his rookie year and responded with 1,350 yards and 11 TDs.
BAD BET: Leading rusher BenJarvus Green-Ellis did crack 1,000 yards, but RB depth remains a mess.
19. Dallas Cowboys: 30/1
GOOD BET: QB Tony Romo (4,903 yards, 28 TDs) is playing as well as ever.
BAD BET: RB DeMarco Murray’s 663 yards actually led the team, and discord between the coaches and front office isn’t likely to subside soon.
20. Washington Redskins: 30/1
GOOD BET: QB Robert Griffin III (27 total TDs) will be dominating the NFC East for years to come. A division title in his rookie season is only the beginning.
BAD BET: Whether RGIII can stay healthy through a 16-game schedule will be the question that dogs him until he can actually pull it off. Also when will he be back from injury? Do you know? Seriously, if you know, you should tell someone.
21. Chicago Bears: 30/1
GOOD BET: New coach Marc Trestman has a reputation for getting the most out of QBs, which should bode well for Jay Cutler …
BAD BET: … who only has a single playoff victory in seven seasons. That’s not going to fly with Bears fans much longer.
22. New York Giants: 20/1
GOOD BET: QB Eli Manning – at least 3,200 yards passing and 21 TDs in eight straight seasons – is as reliable as they come.
BAD BET: The Giants’ tendency to fall into late-season slumps always makes them a risky play.
23. Pittsburgh Steelers: 18/1
GOOD BET: QB Ben Roethlisberger’s production (26 TDs to eight INTs) was a notable uptick over the previous season, and injuries (78 game starts missed) can’t possibly be any worse next season.
BAD BET: Though ranked No. 1 in yards allowed, a Steelers defense with no player collecting more than seven sacks has room for improvement.
24. New Orleans Saints: 18/1
GOOD BET: TE Jimmy Graham (982 yards and nine TDs) is a freak of nature that anchors the Saints’ always-potent offense.
BAD BET: The pass defense ranked next-to-last in the league, which makes every Saints game a shootout that could go either way.
25. Atlanta Falcons: 18/1
GOOD BET: Nice odds for the NFC’s No. 1 seed in the playoffs and a team that was perhaps a fourth-down conversion away from the Super Bowl.
BAD BET: With several close victories, the Falcons never seemed to convince the mainstream that they were among the elite. That label may stick going into 2013.
26. Seattle Seahawks: 16/1
GOOD BET: QB Russell Wilson (30 total TDs as a rookie) and RB Marshawn Lynch (career-high 1,590 rushing yards) were revelations last season.
BAD BET: A No. 4-ranked defense (306.2 yards per game) will be hard-pressed to repeat last season’s dominance, but it’s not impossible.
27. Baltimore Ravens: 14/1
GOOD BET: Assuming QB (and Super Bowl MVP) Joe Flacco signs the mammoth contract coming his way, the world champs will return with an offense almost entirely intact.
BAD BET: Ray Lewis and Ed Reed are likely gone from the defense, which ranked a mediocre 17th in yards allowed per game (350.9).
28. Houston Texans: 14/1
GOOD BET: RB Arian Foster is a dual-threat unlike any other back, and the seventh-ranked offense (372.1 yards/game) keep the Texans competitive every week.
BAD BET: Will opposing offenses finally adjust to NFL sack-leader JJ Watt? It’s possible, but a top-seven overall defense means the team is loaded with options beyond the 23-year-old All-Pro.
29. Green Bay Packers: 10/1
GOOD BET: At his best, there is no one better than QB Aaron Rodgers (4,295 yards and 39 TDs).
BAD BET: Green Bay has had two disappointing playoff exits in a row, and with Rodgers entering his ninth season in the NFL, he doesn’t have as many chances left as some of his peers.
30. Denver Broncos: 8/1
GOOD BET: Peyton Manning’s heralded return anchored a fifth-ranked passing attack (283.4 yards/game) that only figures to improve as team chemistry coalesces.
BAD BET: Even with a talented and deep defense, Manning’s health is everything to the Broncos. As he goes, so goes Denver.
31. San Francisco 49ers: 8/1
GOOD BET: The NFC champs were a hair’s breadth from winning Super Bowl XLVII, and QB Colin Kaerpernick has the innate skill to join the NFL’s elite in short order.
BAD BET: An inconsistent kicking game was the source of many Bay Area ulcers this past season, and special teams breakdowns (read: Jacoby Jones’ 108-yard kickoff return in the Super Bowl) can cost you a championship.
32. New England Patriots: 7/1
GOOD BET: Tom Brady is the QB. Rob Gronkowski is the TE. Bill Belichick is the head coach. Enough said.
BAD BET: The Ravens’ shocking win in Foxborough earlier this month, coupled with two recent Super Bowl losses to the Giants, only confirm that the Pats are no longer the invincible force they once were. (Still, the smart money remains fixated on Brady’s right arm.)
h/t R.J. Bell
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