Our show is on break and I think that makes this the perfect time to talk over some theories. Red was about to explain some things to Liz before he was shot and I think we need to discuss ideas.
So, I believe that Red hired Tom because she had grown up and couldn't stay with Sam forever. It makes sense. Red wants Lizzie protected and he needed someone in place. This leads us to: why did Red turn himself in? I believe there are two possibilities for this question. The first is that the need for the fulcrum made it necessary or Red found out Tom had been flipped by Berlin and no plan to protect Lizzie other than himself.
Liz is clearly very upset with Red now and I think there are only a few options for them that would make him worth forgiving in her eyes.. Option 1 is the running theory that he's her father. That theory is ok but it just doesn't seem to be the case. A more likely option is that he's her uncle or a criminal friend of her father's. He knew the father had the fulcrum and it's possible the father burned the house down with Liz and her mother inside to fake his death. They why'd he hide the fulcrum in Lizzie's bunny? This is where I think the father must have known his brother or friend, Red was going to save Liz from the fire because either his own home had just burned or he was still a good guy and had planned to turn it in. But Red didn't know where the fulcrum was just that Liz was the key. I think he's her Uncle or very much like an uncle and that her real father is the number 1 blacklister, who Red's been after for the last 20 years. There's a romance theory floating around that Red and Lizzie should be together but that one really doesn't hold any water. He has clearly known her since she was a child and had Sam sending him updates (ie the Birthday pictures) and I just don't see Red as a pedophile. Also, we've seen how he acts when he's attracted to a woman and that's not how he acts with her. He has such a strong paternal love for her. The age difference isn't an issue it's the circumstances. And lastly, that wouldn't be something that needed to be a big secret or reveal if it was the case. Why would him wanting to be with her romantically need this much mystery? My money's on the second theory because she wouldn't forgive him if he'd had a part in her parent's death and was protecting her out of guilt.
Is Tom gone for good now that they've said goodbye? I don't think so. I think he's an audience favorite and there's still a chance he and Liz will rekindle their romance. I don't agree with that 100 % since he was kind of a dirt bag for awhile but I can't find any other reason for the character to stick around.
Is the music box the key to unlocking the fulcrum? I think you could insert it somewhere and the music box would play whatever secrets lie within it.
What does Red want with Vanessa Cruz? He seems to either kill a blacklister or use them so I am curious to see what his plans are. Will he use her as a revenge plan against the ones who shot him?
Lastly, is Red going to make it? The answer is an obvious yes. The show is not very good without Spader so it would be a very stupid move by NBC. I love the show but I do sometimes wonder if I'd still watch the FBI be bad at their jobs if I didn't know Red would be popping up soon. Anyway, I just needed to get some of these ideas on paper and I hope that y'all with share more theories you have. I love to discuss this show. It's always keeping me on my toes.
I almost forgot! Red specified in the first episode he wanted two bodyguards. Why did Luli never get replaced after the events in Anslo Garrick? Dembe is amazing but I'm not above saying if someone else had been there we wouldn't be in the predicament we're in. #RedAlert