When Theresa May stands up to deliver her Commons statement on the EU summit on Monday, it won’t just be the Brexiteer Conservative MPs sitting behind her from whom she faces mutiny.
Hostility to the prime minister’s handling of the Brexit negotiations is such that, for the first time, both Leave and Remain supporting Tory MPs are questioning the received wisdom that she would win a confidence vote.
For months, Brexiteer MPs have hyped up speculation that they are on the verge of reaching the threshold of 48 no-confidence letters required to trigger a vote. In November last year, Brexiteers briefed journalists that 40 MPs had agreed to submit letters. This week, nearly a year later, those Brexiteers claimed the number is now in the “low forties”.
But even if a vote were triggered, the consensus view until now has been that May was safe as there was no way a majority of Tory MPs would vote to oust her. Downing Street was said to be confident she would win any vote. This week, that consensus started to change.
“It is now much less clear that she would win it,” a senior Remain-supporting Tory MP told BuzzFeed News, indicating that the level of opposition across the party to May’s premiership is greater than previously thought.
A Brexiteer MP pointed to the rule that another confidence vote cannot be triggered for a full year if the PM wins. “Colleagues are not going to allow a situation where she cannot be removed for another year and so is in charge of the future relationship negotiation too,” they said.
Both Leave and Remain supporting Tory MPs agree there is no organised plan to trigger a confidence vote, but that it is possible the party could “stumble” into one.
One prominent Tory MP who voted Remain told BuzzFeed News they were “considering” sending a letter of no confidence to Graham Brady, the chair of the 1922 Committee, after concluding that May is unable to deliver an acceptable Brexit deal.
A Brexit-supporting parliamentary private secretary told colleagues they now believed a change of leadership is required and discussed writing a letter.
MPs said the weekend away from Westminster, then May’s statement and the Tuesday cabinet meeting, are fundamental to May surviving what is being considered yet another “hell week”. “Every week is hell,” said one weary government source.
Both sides are seeking answers on Monday following what they described as May’s uninspiring performance in Brussels.
They want clarity on whether Number 10 is considering an extension to the transition period, after May bizarrely said such an option had “emerged” but that she was not “proposing” it. Last week BuzzFeed News revealed several ministers had discussed a plan to extend the transition. Scotland secretary David Mundell is said to have told the PM he would quit if this became policy.
Remain MPs led by Dominic Grieve are seeking “rapid assurance" that the Commons will be able to amend a Brexit deal, after Brexit secretary Dominic Raab wrote to MPs suggesting they would have to choose between the deal presented or no deal.
Leave MPs are demanding to know if the UK is heading towards a permanent customs union with the EU, after a report by ITV’s Robert Peston suggested that could be the eventual end state. European Research Group vice-chair Steve Baker said: “A few of us predicted Chequers would be pushed to the customs union plus some kind of single market membership, effectively reversing the result.”
Some MPs want the PM to hand the reins of the negotiations over from her adviser Olly Robbins to Raab, following last weekend’s debacle in which Robbins appeared close to a deal with EU negotiators before it was torn up by the cabinet. “Dom needs to exert his authority, he needs to say to the PM this is going to end in no deal if we don’t get a grip,” said a Brexiteer MP.
Allies of David Davis indicated he is ready to step in as a caretaker leader and seek a “super-Canada”–style deal in the event May is challenged. “There is a detailed legal text sitting in DExEU, prepared by the Market Access and Budget Directorate after months of work, which is ready to be presented to Michel Barnier and Donald Tusk,” one said.
Davis is to make another intervention in the weekend newspapers. Though the prospect of the former Brexit secretary succeeding May was given short shrift by some Tory MPs who say he is at least partly responsible for the current situation.
Two members of the ERG told BuzzFeed News they believe Raab is feeding information from the government to Davis, for whom he used to work as chief of staff. Allies of Raab confirmed he still speaks to Davis but denied this undermines the government in any way.
One of those involved in attempts to oust May warned: “People are back in their constituencies this weekend, thinking about what is best for themselves, the party and the country, probably in that order”. They added: “This time next week we will know if it’s going to happen.”
Loyalist MPs cautioned that May survived her first so-called “hell week” two weeks ago, and then got through her second supposed point of maximum danger last week.
One said: “Remainers don’t want want to trigger a confidence vote in case she loses it and a Brexiteer becomes PM. Brexiteers don’t want to trigger one in case they lose it and she stays. So, the letters will stay as drafts.”