Scotland The Brave Heads Into Battle Tomorrow... Blindfolded?

The Scottish independence referendum has caused shock waves across the UK and Europe, and as the Scots head to the polls Thursday, they find themselves torn between a future as an independent nation, at the risk of being ostracized by its current allies, or remain within the UK and continue to be dictated to by Westminster.

Via wbponline.com

by John McMonigle Boyd
WBP Online

Alba - The people of Scotland, in an understandable attempt to finally take control of their own affairs, could throw caution to the wind in tomorrow's referendum and vote Yes to independence, despite a barrage of emotional blackmail and threats that have been launched at it from Westminster and the European Union.

Many people around the world are under the illusion, having been force-fed images of Braveheart, that this referendum is to do with bad blood between the Scots and the English. In one sense, this is true, but the bad blood is nothing to do with the violent battles that transpired before the Union was formed over three hundred years ago. It lies instead in the frustration felt by many Scots that they have not been properly represented in Westminster for most of the past half century. This has left many Scots bitter as they repeatedly voted for policies that were never implemented, as the Scottish votes get steamrolled by those of its far more numerous southern neighbors.

The crux of this referendum is for the Scots to control their own finances and policies, decide on priorities, and not to be held jointly accountable for certain political or military decisions adopted by Westminster. The Scots have long expressed different views from the English on various issues, for instance, and many now feel it is time to change all that.

The chances of a Yes vote have faded slightly in recent days, if we are to believe the latest polls, which have finally aligned around a 52% vote for No against 48% opting for independence, with around 8% still undecided or apathetic. No poll can predict the outcome of tomorrow's referendum, however, as many eligible voters are still sitting on the fence and many could still be swayed to the other side. The fact that this is the first referendum allowing everyone over sixteen a vote could also produce a surprise by contradicting opinion polls.

Not an EU referendum

There has been much talk of scaremongering, and rightfully so, given the unfounded statements of European Commission President Jose Barroso, for instance, that the European Union would simply eject almost 5.5 million of its citizens who have been in this elite club for over 40 years. There is no precedence here and the issue, or rather excuse, lies in whether to apply Article 49 of the EU Treaty on accession for new members or Article 48 on the modification of relations with existing members. Mr. Barosso is, as could be expected, taking political sides with Westminster and secession-phobic nations like Spain and Italy, and possibly overstepped his remit by saying it would be almost 'impossible' for Scotland to rejoin the EU.

The chance of the European Union actually holding to such an opinion in the event of a Yes vote is saturated with doubt, as this would cause all sorts of problems for other members, including defiant Spain, as it utilizes Scotland's vast fishing grounds, for instance. Back in April, Scotland's First Minister Alex Salmond warned that twelve EU members would no longer be able to fish in Scottish waters if the country is ejected from the EU. That is just the tip of the iceberg of issues that would suddenly emerge from below the surface.

A more likely scenario is that relations between an independent Scotland and the European Union would be smoothed out in the eighteen-month negotiation period between the vote and formal independence, forecast for March 2016. This would really only be possible with the collaboration of Westminster, though, which may not be so readily forthcoming given the pre-referendum threats and any post-referendum animosity. Nevertheless, other voices can be heard around Europe speaking up for Scotland and how it should not suddenly be thrown out of the club simply because it is no longer wed to its partners.

Fear and propaganda

Another issue that has reared its ugly head in recent weeks concerns the illegal leaks of information from the Treasury, hastily gobbled up and regurgitated in appropriate form by the BBC, which itself is now being accused of acting as a propaganda machine for Westminster. Some curious editing of an Alex Salmond reply to a BBC question last week led to a rather large impromptu demonstration outside BBC Scotland.

It seems the Treasury has been openly distributing market sensitive information on the likes of exodus plans of banks, for instance, leading Yes campaign leader Salmond to demand a full investigation into the affair. The whole referendum campaign has been littered with vague numbers, unanswered questions and twisted truths, leaving many Scots dazed and confused about how to vote.

The situation has been compounded further by the complete lack of negotiations about what future awaits Scotland in respect of relations with Westminster, the European Union and NATO, for instance. All have refused to entertain talks with the Scottish parliament until the results are in, meaning the country is walking into the referendum battle partially blindfolded.

NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen reiterated earlier statements this week by announcing that Scotland would automatically be dispelled from the gang and have to apply for NATO membership, being treated the same as any other fresh application. NATO's own interests rest strongly in the nuclear submarines and trident missiles located in Scotland as these would, if independence is declared, have to leave the Clyde basin by 2020. NATO will only deal fully with the Scotland question after the referendum in the event of a Yes vote.

The damage done

As an expatriate Scot who has lived in the Slovak Republic for 25 years, not only do I not get to decide on my homeland's future, but probably have no right even to present an opinion. Being asked constantly about where I stand on the issue, I still find it hard to give a clear answer, so can only imagine how confused Scots are at home.

Many media have made comparisons with the split of Czechoslovakia, but even that particular Velvet Revolution, which I witnessed first hand, has stark differences from the current situation in the UK, foremost as it was ordained by the politicians and not by the people.

So now I sit, like the many millions of Scots and Scottish descendants abroad, with no say in the matter and can only look on in anticipation at what is about to unfold over the next 40 or so hours till the final results come in. I can only hope the people in the ancient lands of Alba know as many facts as possible and decide wisely based on those facts, instead of being swayed by threats and fear.

The odds are against Scotland, but some would say they always have been, whether it was being outnumbered 5 to 1 on the battlefield centuries ago or having to accept the political will of the English ever since that fateful day back in 1707 when the kingdoms combined to create a united one. Maybe not that much has changed since those days as the powers in England taunt their northern brother with promises of greater powers in return for continued subservience.

The price of freedom

Regardless of the outcome of the heated and emotional referendum, Scotland will have a price to pay. With a Yes vote, it looks certain, by their statements, that the country's allies to date would gang up on it and give it a damn good hiding as a kind of punishment. They would essentially make the country's endeavor to stand on its own two feet all the harder by kicking the legs out from under it.

It will hardly be a case of life returning to normal even with a No vote, however, as the rebel nation will have to negotiate more devolved powers with Westminster, which has made vague promises without being too specific. It, too, has refused to negotiate with the Scottish parliament until the show is over.

As things stand, even a No vote could leave Scotland pretty vulnerable and at the mercy of London, but the growing pressure from Wales and Northern Ireland for greater decentralization of powers across the United Kingdom could spell a new era for the Union as its constitutional arrangements are given an overhaul. This blanket devolution would also see the 22 territorial regions in England handed more tax raising and spending powers, but everything depends on how easily Westminster will let go of its tight grip.

Scotland is now diving off the precipice with a single question tomorrow: "Should Scotland be an independent country?". The question is simple enough, but the answer fraught with perils and unknowns, thanks to those wielding power holding the proud Scots hostage to their own conscience. Godspeed!

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