1. John Buck is a catcher for the Mets. He’s a career .236 hitter.
2. But this year, he’s already hit six homers in twelve games.
3. And this is ESPN.com’s player page for John Buck. It has some interesting opinions about Buck. Specifically, projections for his 2013 season.
4. ESPN.com has taken Buck’s season so far — this tiny sample size of 12 games — and used that to project a full 162 game season. So in 162 games, Buck is projected to do this.
5. Let’s zoom in on two big numbers. That’s right: ESPN.com says he’ll hit 81 homers and 257 RBIs. Which, yes, would be impressive.
So what this has made us just now realize is that rather than doing an actual projection by incorporating up-to-date data into a systematic prediction formula a la Nate Silver, ESPN seems to just pro-rate players’ totals for the number of games remaining.
7. Justin Upton of the Braves is already an established star, so his projection isn’t quite as random as Buck’s, but it’s still pretty funny.
9. 95 HOME RUNS IS QUITE A LOT OF HOME RUNS.
10. People are excited about Bryce Harper of the Nationals, but he’s on pace for a truly pedestrian year by these high standards.